Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KABR 181609 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1109 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.UPDATE...
MINIMAL CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE. TEMPS ARE ON
TRACK...AND COVERAGE/TIMING OF WX/POPS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. A BIT
CONCERNED ABOUT THE IMPACT STRAIGHT-LINE HODOGRAPHS WILL HAVE ON
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF FORECAST ZONES
/MAINLY EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER/. MLCAPE IS MINIMAL...BUT 0-6KM
SHEAR IS PROGGED AS HIGH AS 30 TO 35 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL VORT/CIRCULATION ROTATES OVER THE CWA. HAVE
CONSIDERED/DISCUSSED THE NEED FOR A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
HIGHLIGHTING POSSIBLE WEAK FUNNEL CLOUDS IN STRONGER CELLS THAT
DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EXITED THE REGION THIS
MORNING...HOWEVER STRATUS AND FOG REMAIN ACROSS PARTS OF THE
NORTHEAST CWA. VISIBILITY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA HAS
DROPPED SIGNIFICANTLY...AND FOG IS WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY OVER WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

TODAY...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.
THIS WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING...COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS EVEN AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS OF
0-6 KM SHEAR ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA...SO CANT EVEN RULE OUT
A THUNDERSTORM BECOMING STRONG IN THIS AREA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH AFTER THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN. HOWEVER BY
WEDNESDAY THE NEXT MAJOR WAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. AS OF NOW IT APPEARS THAT THE SURFACE WARM FRONT...AND
BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THIS CWA.
HOWEVER...OUR SOUTHERN CWA COULD BE IN A POSITION TO SEE STRONG
OR SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY. WILL MONITOR AS MODELS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT.


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH DEPICTION OF UPPER
FLOW WHICH WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHWESTERLY THANKS TO A BROAD
UPPER TROF OVER WESTERN CANADA. SEVERAL WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS
FLOW ARE PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES FOR QPF OCCURRING WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A
SECOND SYSTEM FRIDAY. IN THE WAKE OF FRIDAYS SYSTEM...LOW LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO
FOLLOW.


&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TERMINALS TODAY. A FEW DAYTIME SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL DEVELOP CLOSE TO KABR/KATY TODAY...DISSIPATING WITH
LOSS OF HEATING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST AS
WELL.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...CONNELLY

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.