Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 252215 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
515 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 512 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Made a few adjustments to pops this evening. Moved precip to the
southeast a little faster as it exits. Although there is some
isolated lightning with the showers in ND, decided to remove
thunderstorm mention from the forecast since there has been no
lightning activity with the current showers in SD and instability
is very limited.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

The forecast challenge is low temperatures tonight.

Currently, some areas are seeing full sunshine and some areas are
seeing completely overcast. Where it`s sunny, temperatures are
warming quickly through the 70s this afternoon. Where it`s cloudy,
temperatures are stuck in the 60s and in some locations the radar
suggests it might even be sprinkling or lightly raining. Over the
next 6 to 9 hours, increasing coverage of daytime-heating-induced
showers and perhaps a couple thunderstorms is expected. After
sundown, any precipitation around should dissipate and/or move
southeast out of the region.

Overnight and during the day Monday, more surface high pressure
originating from Canada will drop down over the CWA. With lack of
wind and clear skies expected, temperatures Monday morning should be
rather chilly once more (upper 30s/low 40s). Winds will be light and
variable and with negligible thermal advection, modified airmass
theory kicks in and temperatures should warm into the 70s for most
of the forecast area. Parts of central and north central South
Dakota, could see temperatures nudge up into the 80s. Overall, dry
and pleasant weather conditions make Monday one of the best days of
the week to be outdoors.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

The main focus of this forecast period is the chances of severe
weather Tuesday night. Strong return flow sets up Tuesday with a
return of moisture (Dewpoints ~60F), instability and warm air. The
low level jet will be cranking up Tuesday ahead of the shortwave.
Right now it looks like convection will be capped for most of the
day, then storms erupting around the Missouri River and moving east
during the evening as cap erodes along the sfc trough. All models in
agreement with convection, and SPC has a large portion in the Day 3
slight risk area. Showers and storms look to linger into Wednesday
as well.

For Wednesday through Sunday temps look to be below normal with a
warming trend by the weekend. While there is nothing to suggest a
large scale precipitation or severe event, it does look like
afternoon or evening showers will be possible, especially Thursday
and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

VFR conditions will prevail across the area through Monday
morning. Could still see a few showers or thunderstorms develop
this afternoon into early evening. With nothing more than some
decaying shower activity working out of North Dakota currently on
radar, will just continue with the VCTS mention due to the
uncertainty of exactly where/when heating-induce convection will
initiate and amend liberally.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Wise
SHORT TERM...Dorn
LONG TERM...Scarlett
AVIATION...Dorn


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