Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 200212 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
912 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Issued at 911 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Current forecast is on track, therefore no changes made at this


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Temperatures/winds/pcpn all factor into forecast challenges through
Saturday. For tonight through Friday, the southerly winds will
continue to usher in increasing warmth and LLM. The higher
dewpoints should effectively limit fire danger on Friday, despite
heftier winds. The increased moisture should also lead to an
increasing chance for weak/elevated convection Friday night as a LLJ
cranks up ahead of an advancing frontal boundary, especially over
the eastern CWA. The front moves east of the CWA Saturday
morning, with cooler air flowing in behind the boundary. However,
on Friday in advance of the front, it should again get quite mild
with temperatures well into the 70s, to around 80 or so for some
locations. LL thermal progs have backed off a bit from previous
runs, but still feel that going forecast is pretty close and
didn`t change much. Temperatures on Saturday will be cooler, but
still above normal for most locations across the forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Will open with an upper trough/departing shortwave over the central
CONUS, moving east with zonal flow in its wake. A secondary wave
will deepen the upper trough overhead Monday/Tuesday. That will be
followed by a high amplitude upper ridge that is fairly progressive,
with another upper trough diving into the region for Thursday. While
we do see several waves, none feature much of a change for moisture.
However, through next week we should see at least two frontal
passages. The result will be the typical Northern Plains thermal
roller coaster ride. Low level flow is westerly Saturday night
with warm advection leading into Sunday. Mixed winds in BUFKIT
with deep (for this time of year) mixing (to around 800mb) will
result in mild/breezy conditions, though it remains uncertain if
we will fully realize the stronger winds aloft thanks to warm
advection. A front moving through Monday will result in
temperatures dropping off slightly and strong northwest winds. The
coldest air looks to glance the region with another surge in mild
air for mid week. That will be followed by another front and a more
substantial temperature drop late in the work week.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

VFR conditions will prevail across the area tonight and through
the day Friday. Low level wind shear between 35 and 45 knots
around the 2000 foot level is expected through the nighttime
hours. Look for southerly surface winds to increase into the 15 to
30 knot range by mid morning on Friday.




LONG TERM...Connelly
AVIATION...Parkin is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.