Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 192354 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
554 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.UPDATE...
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
BREAKS IN THE STRATUS DECK THIS AFTERNOON HAS CAUSED SNOW SQUALLS
TO DEVELOP OVER MOST OF THE CWA. VISIBILITIES AT TIMES HAVE
DROPPED TO 1-3SM UNDER HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS. THE SNOW AND GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET FOR MOST AREAS.
HOWEVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WILL SEE BREEZY
CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT DUE TO A PRESSURE GRADIENT.

CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
BELIEVE THE AFTERNOON CU IN THE EASTERN CWA WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LIKELY BY 12Z THURSDAY. A PERSISTENT CLOUD
DECK ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER WILL LIKELY REMAIN
THROUGH TONIGHT. NAM BUFFER SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE
FOR THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AS WELL. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY
SUNNY ON THURSDAY...HOWEVER A BITTER COLD AIR MASS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND LOWER
20S. THESE READINGS ARE 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SHORT-LIVED SEMI-ZONAL SPLIT FLOW ALOFT IS DEVELOPING AS THE
PERIOD UNFOLDS...BUT THAT TRANSITIONS INTO NORTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY WHILE THE NEXT BIG STORM SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE ACROSS
THE NATION`S MID-SECTION.

WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS:

WHILE ZONAL FLOW IS DEVELOPING THERE ARE A COUPLE OF SUBTLE SHORT
WAVES THAT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THE ONE PROGGED TO WORK OVER
SODAK ON FRIDAY COULD ACTIVATE SOME DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE OUT
OF SOME STRATUS THAT IS FORECAST TO FORM/MOVE INTO THE REGION.
WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE FORECAST STRATUS LAYER BE DEEPER THAN APPX
1000FT...BEFORE I`M SOLD ON THIS NON-MEASURABLE TYPE OF WX
PHENOMENON OCCURRING. NONETHELESS...THE OTHER INGREDIENTS ARE
THERE /SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT...LOW LEVEL WAA AND STRONG LOW LEVEL
WINDS/. LATER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN WINDS
DECREASE AND THE WARM AIRMASS IS IN PLACE...WILL HAVE TO START
MONITORING TRENDS TO SEE IF OPTIMAL FOG-MAKING CONDITIONS WILL SET
UP.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FRIDAY: MODERATE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE OF FOG FRI NIGHT/SAT NIGHT: LOW TO MODERATE

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE TRANSITION DAY WHEN WE TAKE THE POLAR
PLUNGE BACK INTO LASTING SUB-FREEZING WEATHER CONDITIONS CWA-WIDE.
GFS AND ECMWF 0.5KM WINDS REALLY RAMP UP TOO AS THE LOW LEVEL COLD
AIR ADVECTION PICKS UP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HAVING HAD FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AND LIKELY SUNDAY TO MELT/REFREEZE THE SNOW ALREADY
ON THE GROUND...WILL LIKELY ONLY BE SEEING BLOWING SNOW RESULTING
FROM ANY FRESH NEW SNOWFALLS...WHICH THE GFS AND ECMWF /WITH GEM
SUPPORT/ HINT MAY BE DEVELOPING OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF OF
THIS CWA BY MONDAY AS THIS NEXT BIG WOUND UP STORM SYSTEM TAKES
SHAPE SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS CWA EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS
SUCH...RELEGATED ANY BLOWING SNOW MENTION TO SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
WHERE EVER WIND GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO BE 25 KNOTS OR GREATER.

FRCST CNFDNC IN STRNG WNDS DVLPNG SUN NIGHT/MON: MODERATE TO HIGH
FRCST CNFDNC IN SNOW DEVELOPING BY MONDAY: LOW

BEYOND MONDAY...THE TREND CONTINUES TO BE DRY CONDITIONS BUT
UNSEASONABLY COLD.



&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PUSH EAST TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THUS...EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT. EXPECT THE BAND OF
STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL SD AFFECTING PIR AND MBG TO BECOME
STATIONARY TONIGHT WITH LOWERING CEILINGS. CEILINGS WILL BECOME
IFR ALONG WITH SOME FOG FORMING. EXPECT THESE STRATUS CLOUDS TO
REMAIN OVER PIR AND MBG THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON THURSDAY
WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS AND VISIBILITIES AS WINDS TURN SOUTHEAST.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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