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000
FXUS63 KABR 172328 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
628 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Windy (20-40 mph) both Thursday and Friday, Temperatures below
  normal.

- Below normal temperatures persist Saturday but return to normal, if
  not above normal the latter half of the weekend into next week.

- Dry conditions are expected through the weekend before a system moves
  through on Monday with a chance(20-50%) of light rainfall.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 625 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

See updated aviation discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 333 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

An upper low centered over SC Canada will continue to progress slowly
east over the next couple of days. Meanwhile, for tonight, a s/w
will track across the region, bringing some pcpn to areas mainly
near and south of I90, where lift will likely be enhanced by an H5
jetlet. This rain should be mainly done by Thursday morning, with
the rest of the short term period looking dry. CAA behind the upper
low does spread south over the CWA for Thursday, and especially
Friday. The CAA will bring cooler temperatures to the region both
days. Winds will also be a little gusty, particularly during max
heating. With daytime heating, low level lapse rates go dry
adiabatic, thus allowing for a well-mixed boundary layer and gusty
winds being mixed down. For now the CAA doesn`t look strong enough
for widespread advisory criteria wind speeds, but bufr soundings
indicate some potential for gusts up to 45 mph. NBM winds again look
a bit too robust, so tempered them by mixing in some CONShort data.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 333 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

A chilly air mass will be in place at the outset of this period
Friday morning. A sfc ridge will begin to nudge in from the
northwest while our region remains under the influence of
northwesterly flow aloft thanks to an expansive 500 mb low located
across Ontario. The associated broad upper trough will be splayed
westward across the Dakotas and portions of the northern tier Friday
and into the weekend as the 500mb pulls away into Quebec. With sfc
high pressure building into the Dakotas by week`s end into the
weekend, expect a dry forecast to be maintained. Guidance does prog
another 500mb wave to track from the PacNW and across the
US/Canadian border region this weekend and eventually into the
Dakotas early next week. This system will give our area it`s next
chance of precipitation. By the end of period, the upper flow
pattern is a bit more uncertain. Depending on the model, we may see
more northwesterly flow persist or it may become more quasi-zonal as
upper ridging builds back into the Plains.

Narrowing things down on specifics within the forecast, a tight
pressure gradient is likely to persist on Friday across the region.
Gusty northwesterly winds between 25-40 kts will remain possible.
Temperatures will struggle to reach 50 degrees with most locales
likely stuck in the 40s. There may even be a few locales that remain
in the upper 30s across our far northern zones, especially if clouds
hold tough through the day. Some slight improvements are expected
during the beginning of the weekend with more noticeable progress on
Sunday. The gradient does begin to relax on Saturday as the center
of the sfc ridge moves over our forecast area. Winds will be more
tolerable but temperatures will remain a good 10 degrees below
normal. The center of the sfc high is progged to shift south and
east of our area on Sunday. We`ll start to pick up a southerly low
level flow which should help to draw in warmer air. Daytime highs
get back to around normal for this time of year on Sunday. Low
pressure shifts back into the region on Monday bringing a chance(20-
50%) for rainfall. This system appears to be more progressive in
nature and QPF amounts(0.10"-0.20") are generally forecast to be low
at this time. Temperature trends look to remain mild the first half
of next week with readings generally near to sightly above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 625 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will prevail across the area tonight and through
the day Thursday. Scattered rain showers will affect parts of
south central South Dakota this evening. Wind speeds will diminish
a bit overnight, but then look for westerly winds to increase into
the 20 to 35 knot range Thursday afternoon.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...Vipond
AVIATION...Parkin