000
FXUS63 KABR 160204 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
904 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.UPDATE...
THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
REMAINS ON TRACK...SO NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN OVERHEAD TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY
SLIDING EASTWARD DURING THE MORNING. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL PREVAIL AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE 50S BY SUNRISE SUNDAY.
THE NEXT WEATHER FEATURE IS SET TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE CWA
TOMORROW AS HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES POOL ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL ZONES AND S/W ENERGY MOVES IN ALOFT TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING

DRY AIR HAS SETTLED OVER THE AREA...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SIT OVERHEAD TONIGHT...SO WE WILL SEE IDEAL
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S. AS
THIS HIGH DRIFTS SOUTHEAST...MOISTURE ALONG ITS PERIPHERY WILL
BACK IN FROM WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA. NOT EXPECTING MUCH
OF A DEWPOINT RECOVERY...POSSIBLY LOW 50S...MAKING MOISTURE THE
LINCHPIN WHEN IT COMES TO POPS. A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE AREA SUNDAY...AND REGIONAL PROFILES SUGGEST STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT ABOUT 1000
J/KG CAPE AND THUS A FEW HIGH BASED STORMS. GIVEN WEAK MID LEVEL
FLOW...IF STORMS INITIATE AROUND MID DAY...THEY WILL BE PULSE IN
NATURE WITH A LOW RISK FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL REMAIN WEAK AS LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST
NORTH DAKOTA/NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WELL TO
THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. THUS...THE DRY...COOL LOW LEVEL
AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY AM.


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES OVER THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY. THE RIDGE
ALSO BEGINS TO FLATTEN SOMEWHAT WITH A NUMBER OF SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. ON TUESDAY THESE WAVES WILL
HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO NO MORE THAN AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING HOWEVER A LEE SIDE TROF BEGINS TO MOVE OFF THE
ROCKIES. THE LLJ WILL INCREASE AND SHEAR PROFILES ALSO BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS TROF SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY
ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. MODELS DIVERGE ON SPEED OF THE LAST
SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE ECMWF PULLING MORE PRECIP
OVER SD ON FRIDAY WHILE THE GFS HOLDS OFF UNTIL SATURDAY. STUCK
CLOSE TO THE ALLBLEND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WED NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSE TO AVERAGE THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN CONTROL ACROSS THE
TERMINALS THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE THE
RESULT. RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO SET UP EARLY TOMORROW MORNING ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE. HIGHER MOISTURE
VALUES WILL BEGIN TO POOL WEST OF KPIR AND COMBINE WITH INCOMING
MID TO UPPER LVL ENERGY FROM THE WEST TO TOUCH OFF SOME SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ADDED VCTS MENTION FOR KPIR BEGINNING LATE
SUNDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS INCOMING FEATURE. LEFT THE
OTHER TERMINALS DRY FOR NOW AND WILL REEVALUATE POTENTIAL PRECIP
AND TIMING FOR THEM IN FUTURE TAF ISSUANCES.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...VIPOND
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...DORN/VIPOND

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN