000
FXUS63 KABR 201748 AAD
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1248 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.UPDATE...
LOW PIVOTING OVERHEAD THIS AM WITH RAIN ACROSS ALMOST THE ENTIRE
CWA...THE EXCEPTIONS BEING SOUTH OF PIERRE...WITH MORE SHOWERY
ACTIVITY AROUND THE WATERTOWN AREA. WITH SLOW MOVEMENT OF WEAK
SURFACE TROF BETWEEN PIERRE AND MOBRIDGE EXTENDING OVER TO
ABERDEEN...WILL CONTINUE HIGH RANGE POPS. EASTERN COUNTIES SEEING
A FEW THIN SPOTS IN CLOUD COVER. THIS COINCIDES WITH A WEAK
CIRCULATION ON RADAR. MODELS HAVE SOME CAPE IN THAT AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...SO WILL HIGHLIGHT EASTERN COUNTIES FOR ISOLATED
THUNDER. NOT MUCH GOING FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...BUT CANT RULE OUT
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. ALSO LOWERED TEMPERATURES ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE TROF AXIS THANKS TO WEAK COLD ADVECTION AND PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVER/LIGHT RAIN.

AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS BELOW...

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WILL BRING PERIOD OF SHOWERS...ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH THE
COLDEST READINGS OCCURRING ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER. MUCH LIKE THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BELIEVE THERE WILL BE TIME PERIODS WITH
LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION. PINPOINTING SUCH A TIME PERIOD IS
RATHER DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE BASED ON MODEL GUIDANCE. THE OVERALL
THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY/TONIGHT APPEARS PRETTY LIMITED.
THE NAM12 DOES SHOW SOME WEAK ML-CAPE VALUES WRAPPING INTO THE CWA
WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY AXIS SOUTH OF A LINE FORM SISSETON TO
PIERRE. BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF CAPE/SHEAR...SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SKIES POSSIBLY CLEARING DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE PLAINS WED NIGHT.
RESULTING DRIER WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A LEE SIDE TROF
SETS UP THU NIGHT. BY FRIDAY ENOUGH MOISTURE IS PULLED UP OUT OF
AN OPEN GULF INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR TSTORM CHANCES TO BEGIN.
A DEVELOPING LLJ OF 25 TO 35 KTS WILL HELP FOCUS ANY STORMS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE ROCKIES SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS LOW. A WARM
FRONT WILL DEVELOP SUN NIGHT...THOUGH AT THIS TIME THE FOCUS FOR
FORCING LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN SD/NE/IA.
TSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF SD THROUGH MONDAY.

CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE TEMP FORECASTING TRICKY. GENERALLY SPEAKING
EXPECT HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE NEAR 70...WITH SOME WAA AHEAD
OF THE WARM FRONT ON SUNDAY.



&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AREA OF RAIN PIVOTING THROUGH KABR AND KPIR...EXITING KMBG...WITH
A SECOND AREA OF SHOWERS OVER/NORTH OF KATY. MOST OF THE RAIN IS
LIGHT WITH VFR VISBY AND MVFR CIGS...THOUGH HEAVIER POCKETS ARE
RESULTING IN IFR CIGS. THIS LINE IS CLEARING KMBG SO EXPECT
IMPROVING CONDITIONS...HOWEVER ANOTHER BAND OF MODERATE RAIN IS
SET TO PIVOT DOWN OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. FOR
KATY...BEING IN A WARMER/UNSTABLE AIRMASS...A FEW WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS COULD POP FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...CONNELLY
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...CONNELLY

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN