000
FZAK80 PAFC 032258
ICEAFC

Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters
National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program
258 PM AKDT Friday 3 May 2024

FORECAST VALID...Wednesday 8 May 2024

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...High to moderate.

SYNOPSIS...A large low pressure in the southern Bering Sea will move
eastward across the Alaska Peninsula on Sunday. Into next week,
several small circulations may form in the Bering Sea but no major
systems are expected.

The main ice edge extends from near Quinhagak to 58 44N 164 32W to
59 9N 169 50W to 59 54N 174 42W to 61 2N 178 31W and continues
in Russian waters. The ice edge is open water.

From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from
near Quinhagak to 65 nm southeast of Cape Mendenhall to 100 nm
southwest of Cape Mohican to 65 nm southwest of Saint Matthew Island
to 250 nm southwest of Gambell and continues in Russian waters. The
ice edge is open water.

-BEAUFORT SEA-

PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-
PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm-
PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm-
PKZ860-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island from 15 nm to 80 nm-
PKZ861-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point from 15 nm to 75 nm-

Ice covered.

FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast
confidence is high. Winds will remain northeasterly through the
period. Pack ice will remain consolidated against the shorefast ice
with little change.

-CHUKCHI SEA-

PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm-
PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm-
PKZ809-Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm-
PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 nm-
PKZ811-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort out to 15 nm-
PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 nm-
PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-
PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 nm-
PKZ856-Wales to Cape Thompson greater than 15 nm-
PKZ857-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort from 15 to 85 nm-
PKZ858-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin from 15 to 85 nm-

Ice covered.

FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast
confidence is high. Winds will generally remain out of the northeast
through Wednesday. Polynyas will continue to open from Utqiagvik
through Kivalina, but will quickly fill in with new ice.

-BERING SEA-

PKZ762-Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Peirce out to 15 nm-
PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 nm-
PKZ765-North and West of Nunivak Island-
PKZ767-Saint Matthew Island waters-
PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 nm-
PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 nm-
PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 nm-
PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 nm-
PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 nm-
PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 nm-
PKZ816-South side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-
PKZ817-North side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-
PKZ850-Etolin Strait to Kwemeluk Pass from 15 to 90 nm-
PKZ851-Southwest of Saint Lawrence Island from 15 to 100 nm-
PKZ852-Norton Sound greater than 15 nm-
PKZ853-Kwemeluk Pass to Kwikpak Pass from 15 to 90 nm-
PKZ854-Sledge Island to Wales greater than 15 nm-

Ice covered.

PKZ412-Bering Sea 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
PKZ414-Bering Sea East of 171W-
PKZ756-Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon out to 15 nm-
PKZ758-Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef out to 15 nm-
PKZ760-Bristol Bay greater than 15 nm-
PKZ761-Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 nm-
PKZ764-Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 nm-
PKZ766-Pribilof Islands Nearshore Waters-

FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence
is high. Moderate northerly winds will continue through the weekend.
Expect the ice edge to move southward 15 to 30 nm in this timeframe.
The ice along the edge will remain low concentration, in the lower
end of marginal ice. Light northerly winds will then continue
through Wednesday with little movement of the edge. For this time
period expect movement generally with tides and currents.

Polynyas will continue to expand west and south of Saint Lawrence
Island. The large polynya in eastern Norton Sound will continue to
expand.

Shorefast ice from the Kuskokwim through the Yukon Delta has not
shown signs of much degradation as of yet, but is expected within
the next couple of weeks as seasonal warming continues.

&&
Lawson