Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FNUS71 KAKQ 251104
FWSAKQ

Spot Forecast for South Quay Sandhills NAP units 5/6...DCR Natural Heritage
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
704 AM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0500 EDT on March 25.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service at 757-899-5734.

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure will keep winds northeasterly around 10mph with
gusts up to 15mph through the day on Monday. Expect min RHs near
40 percent Monday afternoon. Cloud cover will increase Monday
night into Tuesday as increased moisture streams in, resulting in
min RHs on Tuesday near 55 percent. Rain chances will move in
beginning Tuesday night and persist off and on through the day on
Thursday, with heavier rain being possible at times.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent). Areas of frost early in
                    the morning.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 58.
Min humidity........43 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming northeast 6 to 11 mph
                    early in the morning.
Mixing height.......3200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 6 to 14 mph increasing to 15 to 17
                    mph late in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2100 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (44400 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............5.
ADI.................3 early in the morning increasing to 55 in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........4   4   4   5   6   7   7   7   6   8   9   11
Weather cov.....ARS ARS ARS
Weather type....FST FST FST
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............32  32  34  39  43  47  51  53  55  56  57  56
RH..............96  100 96  82  73  65  54  50  47  45  43  43
20 FT wind dir..N   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
20 FT wind spd..3   3   4   6   7   9   9   9   9   9   10  10
20 FT wind gust.5   5   6   11  12  14  14  14  14  14  16  16
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 0.5 1.3 2.1 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.0
Transp wind dir.NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
Transp wind spd.7   6   7   10  14  17  17  16  15  15  15  15
LVORI...........8   8   6   3   3   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............3   6   7   17  36  53  55  52  49  49  49  48
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..2   2   3   11  25  43  44  43  41  40  40  39
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  FR  FR  FR  FR  FR  FR  PR

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (20-30 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (60-70 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 35.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 5 to 8 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Transport winds.....Northeast 6 to 14 mph.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........12     14     13     22     40     64
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............54     49     44     42     40     38
RH..............48     58     73     79     85     96
20 ft wind......NE 9   NE 6   NE 5   NE 4   NE 4   N 4
20 ft wind gust.14     11     8      6      6      6
Transport wind..NE 14  NE 12  NE 9   NE 7   NE 6   NE 9

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (65-75 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 60.
Min humidity........57 percent.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM         10 AM        2 PM
Sky (%).........77           79           66
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE         NONE         NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0            0            0
Temp............36           46           57
RH..............100          86           62

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.WEDNESDAY...
Mostly cloudy with chance of showers. Lows in the lower 40s.
Highs in the mid 60s. Light winds.
.THURSDAY...
Showers. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the upper 50s. Northeast
winds around 6 mph.
.FRIDAY...
Partly cloudy. Showers. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the lower
60s. Northwest winds around 13 mph.

$$
Forecaster...PEGRAM
Requested by...Rebecca Wilson
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2408344.1/AKQ
.DELDT 03/25/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL rebecca.wilson@dcr.virginia.gov


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