357
FXUS61 KALY 041751
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
151 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure along the New England coast will provide
continued dry conditions through today. The high will remain
nearly stationary through this evening, with a frontal system
slowly approaching from the west tonight. Clouds will gradually
increase and thicken, with chances for showers developing west
of the Hudson Valley mainly after midnight. Showers will become
widespread by Sunday as the system tracks east across the area
with cool temperatures. Dry and warmer conditions are expected
on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 121 PM EDT...At the surface, high pressure (around 1030
hpa) is now exiting off the coast of Maine. Meanwhile, a storm
system will also be approaching from the Great Lakes, but it
will take until tonight to begin impacting the region.

Visible satellite shows a mostly cloudy sky over the region,
with the most breaks for far southern areas. There has been some
occasional light showers and sprinkles over the Adirondacks,
but this activity is very brief, light and spotty. Radar trends
and CAMs suggest this activity will be diminishing during the
afternoon hours. Elsewhere, it should stay dry through the rest
of the afternoon hours with continued mostly cloudy skies.

A few light/brief showers will be possible for areas well west
of the Hudson Valley this evening. Otherwise it should be dry
with thickening mid level clouds through the evening hours.
So high temperatures should be slightly above normal again,
with mid 60s to lower 70s expected across much of the area.

Chances for showers will then increase overnight west of the
Hudson Valley, with the upper ridge axis starting to break down
as a short wave moves in from the west. It will be dry with
overcast skies from the Hudson Valley east. Again with the
slower trends, will only mention slight/chance PoPs through
tonight. Lows will be mainly in the 40s to around 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Cool, raw and damp conditions will occur on Sunday. Widespread
showers will move across the entire area, as forcing increases
substantially with isentropic lift strengthening on the 290-295K
surfaces. Strengthening southerly flow ahead of a slow moving
front approaching from the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley regions will
allow deep layer moisture to increase with PWAT anomalies rising
to +1 to +2 STDEV. The short wave trough aloft will also be
moving eastward across the region enhancing ascent. With
clouds/showers around and a persistent low level S-SE breeze,
highs will only reach the 50s with even some 40s in the highest
elevations.

Showers will likely persist into Sun evening, as the surface
front gradually approaches from the west with isentropic lift
continuing. Will mention likely/categorical PoPs through the
evening. The front looks to push through overnight into early
Mon morning, with showers tapering off from NW to SE. Total
rainfall expected to be 0.25-0.50" from around Albany
south/east, with 0.50-1.00" north/west(greatest amounts upper
Mohawk Valley and SW Adirondacks). The rainfall should not
result in any hydro concerns.

Drying conditions expected on Mon, as the front clears the area
and surface high pressure starts to build east from the Great
Lakes. Winds will shift to the W-NW, with PWATs lowering through
the day. After morning clouds, sunshine should appear during
the afternoon. With a well-mixed environment and relatively mild
temperatures aloft, highs should be quite mild ranging from
mid/upper 60s in the mountains to lower/mid 70s in the valleys.

High pressure builds east into our region Mon night, providing
dry/tranquil conditions. Lows look to be in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Fair weather with warm temperatures for Tuesday as weak mid
level ridge traverses the region. Highs in the 70s for most
valley areas except 65-70 for higher terrain areas.

Unsettled conditions then return for Wednesday through Friday,
as a series of fast moving upper level disturbances pass
through. This should bring plenty of clouds along with several
bouts of rain or showers, perhaps with some embedded
thunderstorms at times. Temperatures will be near to below
normal during this period, with highs mainly in the mid 60s to
around 70, although could be much cooler if steady rain occurs,
with overnight lows mainly in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 18Z Sunday...VFR conditions prevail at all terminals
this afternoon as high pressure remains displaced just to our
east off the New England Coast. Visible satellite shows a
general increasing trend in cloud cover as a frontal system
pushes further into the Ohio Valley. Despite increasing clouds,
conditions will remain VFR for at least the next 6-10 hours
before ceilings begin to lower to MVFR heights.

Rain showers are not expected to begin until later in the period
as the aforementioned system tracks slowly north and east
towards the southeast Great Lakes. Showers are generally
expected to overspread the region from southwest to northeast,
impacting the terminals between 8-11z tomorrow morning. Upon
onset, showers are expected to carry through the remainder of
the 18z TAF period, likely causing conditions to worsen to MVFR
thresholds. It is possible that heavier batches of showers
moving over the terminals could worsen conditions to IFR
thresholds, but due to low confidence in that possibility at
this great a lead time, refrained from including this in the 18z
TAFs.

Winds throughout the period will be a bit breezy at times with
sustained speeds ranging from 7-12 kt and gusts at KALB of 15-20
kt. Winds will remain primarily out of a southeast direction.

Outlook...

Sunday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA.
Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...Frugis/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...Gant