721
FXUS61 KALY 061730
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
130 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Behind a departing cold front, clouds will be clearing
out for tonight.  High pressure will allow for a mostly sunny and
warmer day on Tuesday.  Another storm system will bring showers and
thunderstorms late Tuesday night into Wednesday, with more unsettled
and cooler weather expected for the late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 130 PM EDT...Surface cold front has been moving very
slowly across the area. This boundary is just about to finally
cross the Capital Region and Hudson Valley area. Ahead of the
front, skies will continue to be fairly cloudy, with moist low
levels still in place. Meanwhile, areas further north and west
(such as the Mohawk Valley and Adirondacks) have already seen
the low clouds clear away with falling dewpoints, although
passing cirrus clouds are still allowing for some cloud cover.

Through the afternoon hours, the front will continue to slowly
settle south and east. There still could be a stray shower that
develops ahead or along the front for southeastern areas this
afternoon, but this would be very spotty and brief. There could
even be a rumble of thunder, but instability is very limited
(MUCAPE just around 100-200 J/kg across far southern area), so
this would be very isolated (if it occurs at all). Otherwise,
skies will be slowly clearing from northwest to southeast
through the rest of the day.

Highs will be warmer than yesterday, although the morning clouds
have prevented temps from warming up too quickly. Highs look to
reach around 70 in valley areas, with 60s for the hills and
mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
For tonight, aforementioned upper level disturbance across the
Ohio Valley tracks toward the mid Atlantic coast. High clouds to
the north of this system should linger across the region through
midnight, before thinning from north to south thereafter. Once
the high clouds clear out, temps may drop off rapidly across
northern areas, which may also allow for patchy fog to form
within river valleys. Low temps ranging from the lower/mid 40s
across the southern Adirondacks, to the upper 40s to lower 50s
elsewhere.

Mainly sunny skies are expected for Tuesday as a weak ridge of
high pressure builds across the region. Max temps should reach
the lower/mid 70s within valley areas and 65-70 across higher
elevations.

Tuesday night may start clear to partly cloudy, however clouds
will then thicken with showers developing after midnight from
west to east ahead of an approaching warm front and fast moving
upper level disturbance. Showalter Indices drop to between
0 and -2C for areas mainly west of the Hudson River toward
daybreak Wednesday, so some rumbles of thunder may occur in
these areas. Lows mainly in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Showers and embedded thunderstorms should continue through
Wednesday morning across the region with approaching warm front.
The warm front may then lift northeast into the upper Hudson
Valley region and southern VT in the afternoon, allowing
portions of the region to enter the warm sector of incoming
system. Models suggest strong 0-6 km shear of 45-55 KT across
the region, however there is high uncertainty regarding amounts
of instability across the region, with highest probabilities of
MU CAPES >500 J/kg generally south of I-90 Wednesday afternoon.
SPC has placed this area (south of I-90) within a Marginal Risk
for severe thunderstorms, with isolated coverage expected ahead
of incoming cold front from the northwest. Will have to watch
trends as we get closer to see if instability parameters
increase/decrease, which ultimately will depend on timing of
cold front. High temps should reach the upper 60s to lower/mid
70s, although if sunshine breaks out earlier than expected,
portions of the mid Hudson Valley could be warmer, perhaps
reaching around 80.

Lingering showers possible Wednesday evening, otherwise clearing
and cooler with lows mainly in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The extended forecast begins with wet and unsettled weather
returning to the forecast area, as a positively tilted mid and upper
level trough will be approaching from the Midwest and Great Lakes
Region on Thursday.  Broad southwest flow develops aloft, as a warm
front and a low pressure system brings some showers in during the
late the morning into the afternoon with PoPs kept in the likely and
categorical range. The isentropic lift increases ahead of the warm
front late in the day.  A few rumbles of thunder may be possible
south and west of the Capital Region. Max temps will be near normal
with lower to mid 60s in the lower elevations and 50s over the
higher terrain. The coverage of showers and isolated thunderstorms
increases Thu night, as the warm front moves close to the NY and PA
border.  Likely PoPs were maintained THU night with lows in the 40s
with pockets of upper 30s over the southern Greens and southern
Dacks. The inclement weather continues on Friday with periods of
rain continuing ahead of the upper low and the occluding cyclone.
With the upper low overhead max temps were lowered below the NBM
values with 40s over the higher terrain and widespread lower to mid
50s in the valleys.  The medium range guidance and ensembles have
the cyclone pull away into northern New England and New Brunswick
with the rain tapering to scattered showers.  It will remain cool
with lows in the mid/upper 30s to mid 40s. Total rainfall may range
from 0.50" to 1.50" based on the WPC and probabilistic guidance with
locally higher amounts THU-FRI.

A brief break in the rainfall is possible on Saturday with isolated
showers or sprinkles over the higher terrain, as the upper level low
moves away and short-wave ridging briefly builds in. Sun mixes with
clouds with highs running about 5 degrees below normal with 50s to
lower 60s for max temps.  Clouds increase Saturday night with the
next northern stream short-wave diving in across the Northeast and
Mid Atlantic Region.  The cyclonic vorticity advection increase the
threat for scattered to numerous showers during the afternoon with
temps near to slightly below normal to close the weekend.  The
latest Day 8-14 Outlook for 13-19 May 2024 from CPC is forecasting
near normal temps with precipitation slightly above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR ceilings this afternoon will become scattered between 18Z-20Z
and more clearing through the evening will result in just scattered
clouds above 3000 feet to SKC tonight. Clear sky and light winds
could allow for some fog development at KGFL and KPSF between 08Z-
11Z but just intervals. By 12Z and through the rest of Tuesday
morning and afternoon, VFR with just few to scattered clouds.

Winds will be south to west this afternoon at around 6 Kt, then
light and variable to near calm tonight.  Winds become north to
northwest Tuesday morning at around 6 Kt and continues through
Tuesday afternoon.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely RA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...NAS