620
FXUS61 KALY 010752
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
336 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
After a cloudy start to the morning, more breaks of sun
are expected this afternoon with above normal high temperatures. Dry
and tranquil weather continues through the end of the week, with
cooler temperatures and increasing chances for showers over the
weekend. Warmer temperatures and dry weather return to start the
work week, although chances for showers increase again towards
the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 3:40 AM EDT...A cold front and wave of low pressure that
developed along the front are departing to our southeast, with
most of the showers from earlier tonight having come to and end.
Behind this front, weak low-level winds and abundant moisture
have allowed for widespread low stratus and some drizzle/mist.
Some patchy fog has formed where there are any breaks in the
clouds, so we will likely remain quite damp through the
remainder of the overnight period despite mid-level drying
approaching from the west. The clouds have helped to keep
temperatures elevated, with most areas in the 40s to 50s. The
coldest spot is the upper Hudson Valley where northeasterly
winds have allowed for some dry/cold air advection down from the
north. Temperatures will drop a few more degrees from current
levels between now and sunrise.

Today starts off with plenty of low clouds around which may help
to keep temperatures on the cooler side to start the day, but
with the surface low continuing to track further to the east and
height rises aloft we should see more breaks in the clouds as we
head into the afternoon. A warm front will begin to lift
northeastwards across the region this afternoon and evening,
which will help temperatures climb into the 70s for highs for
valley areas, especially south of I-90. Exact highs today will
depend on just how quickly the clouds clear this morning; if
the clouds are slower to clear then temperatures will likely end
up a couple degrees below the current forecast. Most of the
rest of the region will see highs in the 60s today. Most of
today will be dry, although there could be a few pop-up showers
from the southeast Adirondacks through the upper Hudson Valley
into southern VT this afternoon north of the advancing warm
front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Tonight and Thursday...The warm front continues lifting
northeastward across our region tonight. We will likely see some
mid-level clouds with the warm front, and mid/high clouds will
also be increasing ahead of a potent upper disturbance that
will track north of our region late tonight into tomorrow. Will
bring in slight chance PoPs for the southern Adirondacks, the
upper Hudson Valley, and southern VT late tonight in with this
disturbance approaching, although the bulk of the precipitation
should remain north of our forecast area. Went with lows near
NBM/MOS guidance, with most places in the 40s to 50s. As the
upper disturbance and associated surface low track
north/northeast of our region tomorrow morning, the system`s
trailing cold front will track through the region. Behind the
front, we should see more clearing, breezy conditions, and
relatively deep mixing. Per collaboration with OKX, ended up
dumping temperatures up a few to several degrees above NBM/MOS
guidance especially considering the fact that even our valley
areas are not quite greened up yet.

Thursday night through Friday night...A large-scale upper ridge
will located near the Great Lakes Thursday night will amplify
as it slowly tracks eastwards. The ridge axis moves overhead
Friday night. A broad area of high pressure will be located
downstream of the ridge in eastern Canada, with a ridge of high
pressure at the surface extending southwards over eastern NY
and western New England. Subsidence from these features should
keep our area dry through at least midnight Friday night,
although a couple showers can`t be ruled out for western areas
later Friday night as an upper disturbance and a low-level warm
front approach from the west. As for temperatures, lows Thursday
and Friday night will be mainly in the 40s to around 50. Highs
Friday are somewhat tricky, as east/southeast flow around the
surface high will result in cooler temperatures (highs in the
50s to 60s) across western New England, while areas further west
that are closer to the upper ridge axis should see warmer
temperatures (highs in the 60s to low 70s).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The period starts out Sat with an upper level ridge axis over our
region, with surface high pressure over southern New England
gradually shifting eastward off the coast. A frontal system will be
approaching from the west and may bring some showers, especially
later Saturday afternoon. Guidance differs on the timing due to
possible slowing of the front as it encounters the ridging along the
New England coast. Will mention slight to low chance PoPs for now
with near normal temperatures. The better likelihood for showers
arrives Sat night into Sun, as the system gets closer. Sun looks to
be unsettled and cool with a low level SE flow and plenty of clouds
around with showers continuing.

The last front should clear the area by Mon, with zonal W-NW flow
developing as surface high pressure builds in. So dry conditions and
slightly above normal temperatures are expected. Tue also looks
mainly dry at this time with seasonably warm temperatures, although
will have to watch for a possible warm front starting to approach
from the Ohio Valley and mid Atlantic region. At this time, it
appears the better chance of showers would hold off until Tue
night.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z Thursday...Showers continue to end from west to east,
with just some light scattered -SHRA left around KPOU/KPSF. These
will be ending by 07z-08z, with dry conditions expected the rest of
the night. With plenty of residual low level moisture and not much
wind, low level stratus clouds will persist through the rest of the
night and this morning. Cigs are mainly at MVFR levels, except IFR
at KGFL. Cigs should lower to IFR at KPSF and remain IFR at KGFL,
with occasional IFR possible at KALB. Cigs at KPOU are expected to
be slightly higher, remaining above 1000 ft.

Gradual improvement is expected with MVFR cigs at all sites by 14z,
then eventually VFR by around 17z or 18z as some better mixing
develops along with the strong early May sun. An isolated -SHRA is
possible especially near KGFL during the afternoon, but coverage
should be too sparse to mention in TAFs. VFR conditions will likely
prevail through the rest of the period ending 06z Thursday.

Winds will initially be variable around 5 kt or less, becoming
northwest around 4-6 kt by late this morning.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Main
NEAR TERM...Main
SHORT TERM...Main
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV