Spot Forecast Issued by NWS Albany, NY
000
FNUS71 KALY 152156
FWSALY
Spot Forecast for Saratoga stop 9 and 10...National Park Service
National Weather Service Albany NY
556 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 1800 EDT on April 15.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.
Please contact our office at alb.stormreport@noaa.gov, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.
.DISCUSSION...
The isolated showers north of the Capital Region will
end early tonight associated with the upper level low with clearing
skies and diminishing winds overnight. High pressure builds in
tomorrow with sunshine and slightly above normal temperatures. The
fair weather continues into Wednesday with clouds increasing from
the south and west late, as showers return Wednesday night through
Thursday.
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 35.
Max humidity........96 percent.
Dewpoint............35.
Wind (20 ft)........
Slope/valley.......West winds 5 to 9 mph shifting to the southwest
around 5 mph late in the evening, then becoming
light overnight becoming southwest around 5 mph
after 3 am becoming light.
Mixing height.......100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 8 to 17 mph decreasing to around 7 mph in
the late evening and overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (67700 knot-ft) early in the evening
decreasing to poor (0 knot-ft) late in the
night.
LVORI...............5.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.01 inches.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........35 25 16 16 16 16 16 14 12 9 7 6
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).10 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............56 54 51 48 46 44 43 42 41 38 36 35
Dewpoint........37 37 36 36 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 34
RH..............49 52 56 63 65 70 73 76 79 89 96 96
20 FT wind dir..W W W W W SW SW SW SW SW SW S
20 FT wind spd..9 9 7 6 5 5 5 5 3 5 3 3
20 FT wind gust.15 15 12 9 7 7 7 7 6 7 6 6
Mix hgt (kft)...3.9 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.W W W W W W W W W W W W
Transp wind spd.17 14 10 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
LVORI...........2 2 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 6 8 8
Haines index....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..68 33 5 0 0 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Ventrate Cat....GD PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
.TUESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 63.
Min humidity........32 percent.
Dewpoint............35.
Wind (20 ft)........
Slope/valley.......Light winds becoming west 5 to 9 mph early in
the morning, then shifting to the northwest 9
to 12 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......7700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 6 to 14 mph shifting to the northwest 17
to 20 mph late in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (0 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to excellent (87900 knot-ft) in the
afternoon increasing to excellent (104000
knot-ft) in the afternoon.
LVORI...............4.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
large plume dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........4 3 4 7 11 13 15 38 35 32 29 23
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............36 39 43 47 51 53 55 58 61 63 63 60
Dewpoint........35 34 35 37 37 36 35 35 33 33 34 34
RH..............96 82 73 68 59 52 47 42 35 32 34 37
20 FT wind dir..SW SW W W W W W NW NW NW NW NW
20 FT wind spd..3 3 5 6 7 9 9 9 10 10 12 9
20 FT wind gust.6 6 7 9 12 15 15 15 16 16 18 15
Mix hgt (kft)...0.2 0.2 0.7 2.2 4.2 5.9 6.8 7.4 7.5 7.7 7.4 6.5
Transp wind dir.W W W W W W W NW NW NW NW NW
Transp wind spd.7 6 7 10 14 17 18 18 18 18 20 18
LVORI...........6 4 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Haines index....3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..0 0 4 29 60 88 106 116 120 123 119 104
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR FR GD VGD VGD VGD VGD VGD VGD
.TUESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 36.
Max humidity........82 percent.
Dewpoint............32.
Wind (20 ft)........
Slope/valley.......Northwest winds 7 to 9 mph early in the evening
becoming light.
Mixing height.......200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 9 to 16 mph decreasing to 8 to 9 mph in
the late evening and overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (72800 knot-ft) early in the evening
decreasing to poor (0 knot-ft) late in the
night.
LVORI...............4.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........18 12 7 12 14 16 18 16 15 17 20 23
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............58 55 52 49 46 44 43 41 40 38 37 36
Dewpoint........34 34 34 34 34 34 33 32 32 32 31 31
RH..............40 45 50 56 63 68 67 70 73 79 79 82
20 FT wind dir..NW NW N N N N N N N N N N
20 FT wind spd..9 8 7 3 1 3 3 3 2 2 2 2
20 FT wind gust.15 13 10 6 2 6 6 5 3 3 3 3
Mix hgt (kft)...4.7 2.5 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3
Transp wind dir.NW N N N N N N N N N NE NE
Transp wind spd.16 13 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 9 9
LVORI...........2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5
Haines index....5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..73 36 7 0 0 3 3 3 3 2 2 3
Ventrate Cat....GD PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent) then becoming partly
sunny (55-65 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 61.
Min humidity........39 percent.
Dewpoint............33 increasing to 36 late in the afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........
Slope/valley.......Light winds becoming northeast around 5 mph
late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......3600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 7 to 9 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (4000 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to fair (22000 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
LVORI...............3.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........16 9 2 18 34 51 54 57 59 63 66 66
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10 10
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............36 38 40 43 47 50 53 56 58 60 61 60
Dewpoint........31 31 31 M M 33 M M 35 M M 36
RH..............82 76 70 65 56 52 48 43 42 39 39 41
20 FT wind dir..N N N N N N N N N NE NE NE
20 FT wind spd..2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 5 5
20 FT wind gust.5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.7 1.1 1.7 2.4 3.0 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.4 3.1 2.6
Transp wind dir.NE NE NE N N N N N N N NE NE
Transp wind spd.9 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 8 8
LVORI...........4 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 2 1 2
Haines index....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..4 6 9 13 18 21 22 22 21 21 21 18
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
$$
Forecaster...NAS
Requested by...Mike Grismer
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2411012.0/ALY
.DELDT 04/15/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL michael_grismer@nps.gov