Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FGUS73 KAPX 291458
ESFAPX
MIC001-007-009-011-019-029-031-033-039-047-051-055-069-079-089-097-
101-113-119-129-135-137-141-143-165-301458-

Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
958 AM EST Thu Feb 29 2024

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN...

THE SPRING 2024 FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN INDICATES A BELOW
AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF FLOODING DUE TO SNOW MELT WITHIN MAJOR EASTERN
UPPER AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN RIVER BASINS.

THIS OUTLOOK COVERS CHIPPEWA AND MACKINAC COUNTIES IN EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN WHICH INCLUDES THE PINE RIVER BASIN...AND THE NORTHERN HALF
OF LOWER MICHIGAN ENCOMPASSING THE AU SABLE...BOARDMAN...MANISTEE...
RIFLE...AND TOBACCO RIVER BASINS.

THE FIRST TABLE BELOW LISTS THE PROBABILITIES OF REACHING FLOOD STAGE
(MINOR FLOODING)...AS WELL AS MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOOD LEVELS FOR THE
SIX FORECAST POINTS WITHIN THE GAYLORD NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE
HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA.  THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS)
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED
ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED
ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING
THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL.  WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS LESS THAN
HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER THAN NORMAL.

...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR/MODERATE/MAJOR FLOODING
                    Valid Period:  03/04/2024 - 06/02/2024

                                       :    Current and Historical
                                       :     Chances of Exceeding
                                       :       Flood Categories
                                       :      as a Percentage (%)
                      Categorical      :
                   Flood Stages (FT)   :   Minor    Moderate   Major
Location           Minor   Mod   Major :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:Manistee River
Sherman             15.0   16.0   17.0 :  <5   12   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Boardman River
Mayfield--Brown B    7.0    8.0    9.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Au Sable River
Red Oak              7.0    8.0    9.0 :  <5   12   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Rifle River
Sterling             6.0   11.0   13.0 :  27   63   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Pine River
Rudyard             17.0   19.0   20.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Tobacco River
Beaverton           12.0   14.0   17.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet

DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL OF REACHING FLOOD STAGE IS THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE CURRENT PROJECTED CHANCE FOR REACHING FLOOD STAGE (CS)
AND THE CLIMATIC NORMAL (HS).  FOR EXAMPLE...THE RIFLE RIVER NEAR
STERLING...WITH A FLOOD STAGE OF 6 FEET...HAS A 27 PERCENT CHANCE OF
REACHING OR EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE...WHICH IS 36 PERCENTAGE POINTS
BELOW NORMAL.  DURING THE 90 DAY PERIOD LISTED...THE TYPICAL
PROBABILITY OF THE RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING REACHING FLOOD STAGE IS
63 PERCENT.

THE NEXT TABLE SHOWS THE CHANCE THAT A PARTICULAR RIVER LOCATION COULD
RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGES IN THE SPECIFIED 90 DAY PERIOD (HIGH FLOW
FORECAST):

...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
                               Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                  at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 03/04/2024 - 06/02/2024
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Manistee River
Sherman              12.6   12.8   13.0   13.5   13.9   14.6   14.7
:Boardman River
Mayfield--Brown B     3.9    3.9    4.0    4.3    4.6    4.9    5.0
:Au Sable River
Red Oak               3.7    3.9    4.0    4.4    4.9    5.5    5.6
:Rifle River
Sterling              3.5    3.8    4.3    5.1    6.1    7.5    8.1
:Pine River
Rudyard               4.0    4.7    5.7    6.9    8.5    9.6   10.1
:Tobacco River
Beaverton             4.5    5.1    5.7    6.2    6.9    8.1    9.0


CURRENT FORECASTS SUGGEST PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE ARE
LESS THAN 5 PERCENT...EXCEPT FOR THE RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING WHERE
THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE FLOOD STAGE OF 6 FEET IS AROUND 25
PERCENT.

THE LAST TABLE INDICATES THE CHANCE THAT A PARTICULAR RIVER LOCATION
COULD FALL BELOW THE LISTED STAGES IN THE SPECIFIED 90 DAY PERIOD
(LOW FLOW FORECAST):

...TABLE 3--NON-EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                             Chance of Falling Below Stages
                                 at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 03/04/2024 - 06/02/2024
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Manistee River
Sherman              12.1   12.0   11.8   11.6   11.4   11.3   11.1
:Boardman River
Mayfield--Brown B     3.6    3.6    3.5    3.4    3.4    3.3    3.3
:Au Sable River
Red Oak               3.4    3.4    3.2    3.0    2.9    2.8    2.8
:Rifle River
Sterling              2.1    1.9    1.8    1.7    1.6    1.6    1.5
:Pine River
Rudyard               1.4    1.4    1.3    1.2    1.1    1.1    1.0
:Tobacco River
Beaverton             2.5    2.5    2.4    2.4    2.3    2.3    2.3


SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOKS ARE ROUTINELY ISSUED IN FEBRUARY AND MARCH IN
ORDER TO GIVE ADVANCE NOTICE OF POSSIBLE FLOODING. THE LONG RANGE
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS GIVEN IN THE ABOVE TABLES CONTAIN FORECAST
VALUES THAT ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30
OR MORE YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...AND INCORPORATE CURRENT RIVER
LEVELS...SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...SNOW DEPTH AND SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENT VALUES...AND BOTH 30 AND 90 DAY OUTLOOKS FOR TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION PROVIDED BY THE NOAA/NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER.
ACTUAL RIVER CRESTS WILL DIFFER FROM THIS OUTLOOK IF FUTURE
CONDITIONS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY FROM FORECAST CONDITIONS...OR IF ICE
JAMS DEVELOP.

...CURRENT CONDITIONS...

AN HISTORICALLY WARM WINTER IS THE DOMINANT FACTOR IN THE BELOW
NORMAL SNOWMELT FLOOD PROBABILITIES ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS
SPRING...CONTRIBUTING TO A MINIMAL SNOWPACK.  AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WINTER SEASON (DECEMBER THROUGH FEBRUARY) WILL LIKELY
END UP 1 TO 3 DEGREES ABOVE PREVIOUS RECORD WARMEST WINTERS.  AS A
RESULT...SNOWFALL THUS FAR SINCE JULY 1 IS RUNNING ABOUT 50 TO 75
PERCENT OF NORMAL.  A MAJORITY OF THAT SNOWFALL OCCURRED DURING THE
PERIOD OF JANUARY 9-23 WHERE SOME LOCATIONS RECEIVED MORE THAN 50
PERCENT OF THEIR SEASONAL TOTAL THUS FAR IN JUST THAT TWO WEEK
PERIOD.  AS OF FEBRUARY 29...SNOW DEPTH ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN RANGED FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES NORTH OF A CADILLAC TO ALPENA
LINE...WHILE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN RANGED FROM 2 TO 10 INCHES
WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF WHITEFISH BAY. SNOW
WATER EQUIVALENT OF THE SNOWPACK IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT OF NORMAL.

PRECIPITATION DURING THE FALL MONTHS OF 2023 (SEPTEMBER THROUGH
NOVEMBER) WAS NEAR NORMAL ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN...TRENDING BELOW NORMAL (50 TO 75 PERCENT OF NORMAL) CLOSER
TO SAGINAW BAY. FOR THE WINTER PERIOD (DECEMBER THROUGH FEBRUARY)...
PRECIPITATION WAS 50-75 PERCENT OF NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF NORTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN AND AREAS ADJACENT TO THE ST. MARY`S RIVER IN EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN...AND 75 TO 100 PERCENT OF NORMAL ELSEWHERE.

SOIL MOISTURE IS RUNNING BELOW NORMAL ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND FAR
NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN...ONLY ABOUT 10 TO 20 PERCENT OF NORMAL.
SOIL MOISTURE IS NEAR NORMAL FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN.
CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS BASED ON THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR FOR
FEBRUARY 29 INDICATES MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN AS WELL AS ACROSS MANISTEE/WEXFORD COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN...AND ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.

MOST GAUGING STATIONS ON AREA RIVERS ARE RUNNING AT NORMAL STREAMFLOWS
WITH A MINIMAL AMOUNT OF ICE ACTIVITY DUE TO THE WARM WEATHER.

...WEATHER OUTLOOK...
THE CURRENT CLIMATOLOGICAL OUTLOOK FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH INDICATES
A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF CONTINUING THE WARMER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL
TREND OF THIS PAST WINTER.  THERE IS A 40 TO 50 PERCENT PROBABILITY
OF BOTH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

THE OUTLOOK FOR THE SPRING (MARCH THROUGH MAY) INDICATES A 50 TO 60
PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND NO DISCERNIBLE
TREND WITH REGARD TO PRECIPITATION (EQUAL PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE...
NORMAL...AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION).

...ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...
A FINAL UPDATE TO THE SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON THURSDAY
MARCH 14.  LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS SUCH AS THOSE GIVEN IN
THE ABOVE TABLES ARE ISSUED DURING THE LAST WEEK OF EACH MONTH
THROUGHOUT THE YEAR.

VISIT WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=APX (ALL LOWER CASE) FOR
MORE RIVER INFORMATION...INCLUDING GRAPHS OF THE PROBABILISTIC
INFORMATION GIVEN IN THE ABOVE TABLES...AS WELL AS THE LATEST
OBSERVED CONDITIONS ON NORTHERN MICHIGAN STREAMS.

$$

JPB



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