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000
FXUS64 KBMX 231048
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
548 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 102 AM CDT TUE APR 23 2024

High pressure will slide slowly to the east today and begin to
elongate over the area. Southerly flow returns on the west of the
high and will allow the area to warm into the 70s. The southerly
flow will continue tonight and keep temperatures in the upper 40s
to low 50s wit fair skies. A weak front will move into the region
Wednesday as a 500 mb shortwave moves from the Great Lakes to the
Mid-Atlantic coast. Other than an increase in clouds and a few
showers/storms in the afternoon, this front should hardly be
noticeable with only a minor temperature gradient from north to
south across our area.

16

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 348 AM CDT TUE APR 23 2024

A stalled front oriented from northwest to southeast will be
located over the forecast area on Thursday, nearly parallel to the
flow at 500 mb. PWAT values are forecast to increase through the
day as the front begins to retreat to the northeast. Warm
advection and embedded upstream small-scale disturbances at 500
mb will be supportive of scattered shower and thunderstorms
particulary Thursday afternoon. This activity should be fairly
short-lived, diminishing during evening hours as a ridge aloft
begins to move in from the west.

The 500 mb ridge is expected to remain in control for Friday
through Sunday, contributing to a rain-free forecast. Eventually
a trough in the Plains should progress eastward on Monday with
increasing rain chances.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 548 AM CDT TUE APR 23 2024

VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. There will be some
increasing clouds in the north by sunrise Wednesday with an
approaching weak front. Winds will be more southerly during the
day around 7 to 10 kts.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Drier air is in place through most of the week, with just a few
wrinkles. For today, 20 ft winds become southerly, at 6 to 10
mph, with minimum RH values in the 26 to 35 percent range. A weak
front with just a few showers/storms with very little rain, moves
through on Wednesday. 20 ft winds will become westerly at 6 to 9
mph, with minimum RH values above 35 percent. Another shortwave
may move through on Thursday as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     75  47  75  51 /   0   0  20  10
Anniston    75  50  76  53 /   0   0  20  10
Birmingham  75  52  76  56 /   0   0  20  10
Tuscaloosa  76  51  79  58 /   0   0  20  10
Calera      74  51  76  57 /   0   0  20  10
Auburn      74  51  77  59 /   0   0  20   0
Montgomery  76  51  80  58 /   0   0  20   0
Troy        76  49  81  57 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...16