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Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Boston, MA
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Spot Forecast for Camp Edwards BA3 RX...Massachusetts Army National Guard
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
739 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on April 23.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National
Weather Service.

.DISCUSSION...

High pressure over southeast Massachusetts early this morning will
shift eastward into the waters off Cape Cod today. Expect sunny
conditions and temperatures warming into the mid 50s at the
prescribed burn site, resulting in lowest relative humidities
around 30 percent by this afternoon. While winds are light and are
expected to be through mid morning, we expect a modest southeast
wind around 10 mph to develop by later this morning.

The radiation inversion which developed overnight will continue
until about 10 AM this morning. That will keep any smoke within a
few hundred feet of the ground as long as the inversion holds.
Better lofting of smoke is expected late this morning as the
inversion dissipates. However flow just off the ground is very
light and that will keep the smoke plume very close to the
prescribed burn location.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
CWR.................0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 56.
Min humidity........29 percent.
Dewpoint............31 decreasing to 24.
Max apparent temp...55.
Surface winds (mph).Light winds becoming south 5 to 10 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 5 to 10 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......3000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 8 to 13 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (6100 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (32700 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................9 to 16 increasing to 31 to 40.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
CEILING (KFT).......25.

TIME (EDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........15  15  11  10  4   3   1   0   0   0
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............44  48  51  54  55  55  55  54  53  52
Dewpoint........33  30  28  26  25  23  23  24  24  25
RH..............65  49  41  34  31  29  29  31  32  35
Heat index (F)..41  45  51  54  55  55  55  54  53  52
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   SE  S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..3   5   7   8   8   9   9   10  10  9
20 FT wind gust.8   9   10  12  13  10  10  12  12  12
Surface wnd dir.S   S   S   SE  S   S   S   S   S   S
Surface wnd spd.3   5   7   8   8   9   9   10  10  9
Surface wnd gst.8   9   10  12  13  10  10  12  12  12
Mix hgt (kft)...0.9 1.5 2.1 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.0 2.7 2.5 2.2
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.8   8   8   9   10  12  13  13  13  12
LVORI...........3   2   2   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............9   16  22  32  32  36  40  38  36  31
Haines index....4   4   5   5   5   4   4   4   4   4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..6   11  15  22  26  29  33  30  27  22
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR
Ceiling (kft)...25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear then becoming partly cloudy.
CWR.................0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 39.
Max humidity........73 percent.
Dewpoint............29.
Min apparent temp...33.
Surface winds (mph).South winds 5 to 9 mph in the evening becoming
                    light, then becoming south 5 to 6 mph early in
                    the morning.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 7 mph in the evening becoming
                    light, then becoming south 5 to 6 mph early in
                    the morning.
Mixing height.......100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 8 to 13 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (15500 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (800 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................23 decreasing to 4 to 8.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
CEILING (KFT).......25 decreasing to 20 early in the morning.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........0   7   1   9   1   7   3   5   30  29  28  27
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............49  47  44  43  43  42  42  41  40  39  39  40
Dewpoint........27  27  29  29  30  30  30  31  31  31  31  31
RH..............42  45  55  57  60  62  62  67  70  73  73  70
Heat index (F)..45  43  39  39  39  38  38  36  36  34  33  34
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..9   7   6   5   3   2   3   3   3   5   5   6
20 FT wind gust.12  12  12  9   8   7   7   8   12  12  12  13
Surface wnd dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  S   S   S
Surface wnd spd.9   7   6   5   3   2   3   3   3   5   5   6
Surface wnd gst.12  12  12  9   8   7   7   8   12  12  12  13
Mix hgt (kft)...1.6 0.9 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.12  10  10  9   9   8   8   9   9   10  12  13
LVORI...........2   2   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
ADI.............23  7   7   4   4   4   4   4   4   5   8   8
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3   3   4   4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..16  8   2   2   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   2
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR
Ceiling (kft)...25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25  20  20  20  20

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny then becoming mostly cloudy.
                    Slight chance of rain showers early. Chance of
                    rain showers in the afternoon, then slight
                    chance of rain showers late in the afternoon.
CWR.................6 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 56.
Min humidity........54 percent.
Dewpoint............33 increasing to 42.
Min apparent temp...36.
Surface winds (mph).Southwest winds 7 to 14 mph increasing to 12 to
                    13 mph late in the afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds around 7 mph shifting to the
                    southwest 12 to 13 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......3200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 14 to 20 mph shifting to the west
                    around 17 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3200 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (47500 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................11 to 13 increasing to 42.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
CEILING (KFT).......14 decreasing to 12 early, then decreasing to
                    9.0 late in the morning decreasing to 7.0
                    decreasing to 5.0 decreasing to 3.5 early in
                    the afternoon decreasing to 2.0 decreasing to
                    0.8 early in the afternoon increasing to 1.5
                    increasing to 2.0 late in the afternoon
                    increasing to 2.5.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........39     63     86     92     80     68
Weather cov.....                     CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      10     10     10     10     10
Temp............42     47     50     52     53     54
Dewpoint........31     32     34     37     42     43
RH..............65     56     54     56     66     66
Heat index (F)..36     42     45     52     53     54
20 ft wind......S 7    S 10   S 13   SW 14  SW 14  SW 13
20 ft wind gust.14     17     20     20     20     18
Surface wind....S 7    S 10   S 13   SW 14  SW 14  SW 13
Surface wnd gst.14     17     20     20     20     18
Mix hgt (ft)....300    500    1100   1200   900    2400
Transport wind..S 14   SW 17  SW 18  SW 20  SW 18  W 17
LVORI...........3      2      2      2      3      3
ADI.............11     13     25     28     21     37
Haines index....4      3      3      3      3      3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..3      8      18     21     14     36
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR
Ceiling (kft)...15     12     7.0    3.5    0.8    2.0

$$
Forecaster...Loconto
Requested by...Joel Carlson
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2411915.0/BOX
.DELDT 04/23/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL joel.r.carlson.nfg@army.mil
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
