751
FXUS61 KBTV 031046
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
646 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather persists through Saturday, except over northern New York
where a few light rain showers are possible on Saturday.
Temperatures will be mild, with highs in the 60s and low 70s.
Widespread rainfall returns for the day on Sunday before dry
conditions return to start next week. Conditions mid week
through Friday are trending wetter with daily chances of rain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 638 AM EDT Friday...Low clouds and some areas of fog
remain entrenched across the North Country. In most areas the
fog formed where skies cleared but in some others it formed
under the low stratus deck. The fog should lift pretty quickly
this morning but it will take longer for the stratus deck to
scour out. High clouds are already entering the region from the
west and they will continue to increase as the day progresses.
Previous discussion follows..

Previous Discussion...The region is currently between a
shortwave trough digging south over the Atlantic and a ridge
building in from the west. Low clouds are lingering from weak
northeasterly flow and trapped low-level moisture, and they
should persist for the rest of the night. Fog has developed in a
few of the sheltered valleys where clearing has occurred,
particularly where it rained yesterday. Due to the cloud cover
and some light winds, temperatures should not fall much more
tonight, so lows will generally be in the 40s. The ridge will
build in during the day today and it will initially clear out
the lingering low clouds and fog. Combined with warm advection
from increasing southerly flow, temperatures will rise into the
upper 60s and low 70s, with the highest temperatures expected in
the St. Lawrence Valley. The sun will be short lived as high
clouds ahead of an occluded front will spread into the region
not long after the low clouds depart, so much of the sun will
likely be filtered. The front will be able to spread a few
showers into northern New York tonight, but it will be weakly
forced and falling apart as it arrives, so precipitation amounts
should be under a tenth of an inch. High pressure situated over
Atlantic Canada will be stubborn and prevent the rain from
reaching Vermont. The high remains in place for Saturday and the
day should be be mostly dry, even over New York, where at most
there will be a couple light showers. The high clouds should
remain in place but an absence of lower clouds should allow
temperatures to rise into the 60s across the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 417 AM EDT Friday...Ensemble and deterministic models have
trended much drier Saturday night keeping the highly amplified
ridge axis over the North Country. This will delay the onset of
precipitation while flow aloft continues to stream ample
moisture northward. As such, QPF was cut from the overnight
hours with only a few hundredths possible over northern New York
and nothing for Vermont. Temperatures will remain mild in the
40s to low 50s. Frontal passage is still expected through
Sunday, moving quickly west to east as ridging shifts eastward.
Total QPF should be less than 0.5" with general amounts ranging
from 0.05-0.33". Highest amounts will be across the Greens of
southern Vermont with amounts decreasing northward. Temperatures
will be seasonal in the mid/upper 50s to low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 417 AM EDT Friday...Post frontal thermal advection will be
near neutral given the replacing airmass will originate over the
central Plains. As ridge amplifies Monday/Tuesday, dry
conditions will prevail with temperatures warming above seasonal
averages into the upper 60s to low 70s.

The next wave continues to be projected to move into the North
Country Tuesday night through Wednesday night possibly bringing
another round of elevated PWATs, decent instability, and some
thunderstorm chances. Instability trends have decreased from
previous model runs, but will continue to monitor for potential
of stronger cells. For late week, guidance has trended wetter
with mean longwave troughing stagnating between the Great Lakes
region and the North Country. This pattern would favor active
weather and possibly keeping daily rain chances through the end
of the week. With fast flow aloft, any troughs moving through
will be moving quickly. Temperatures are expected to remain
around seasonal averages with colder air locked well north.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 12Z Friday...Ceilings have been gradually lowering this
evening and should continue to do so overnight. Confidence is
relatively high that ceilings will reach IFR at BTV while confidence
is lower whether ceilings will reach IFR at PBG and MPV. EFK and SLK
should hold onto their low clouds and fog overnight before it scours
out after daybreak. However, the IFR cloud deck at SLK could briefly
scatter out a couple times overnight. The IFR ceilings at RUT are
expected to remain the entire night but there is lower confidence
there. Ceilings will rise quickly after daybreak and all terminals
should be VFR by late morning. There should only be high clouds
during the day today but the clouds will begin to lower and thicken
tonight, though they should remain VFR for the first part of the
night. Winds are relatively light and are generally northerly but
they should transition to southerly during the day tomorrow. LLWS is
not a concern.

Outlook...

Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Sunday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Boyd
LONG TERM...Boyd
AVIATION...Myskowski