360
FXUS61 KBUF 142354
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
754 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled weather will continue across the area through Wednesday as
a frontal boundary stalls over the Lower Great Lakes, producing
occasional showers and a few scattered thunderstorms. The greatest
coverage of rain will be Wednesday afternoon well inland from the
lakes, with lower coverage of showers close to Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario. Weak high pressure will build into the Lower Great Lakes
Thursday with mainly dry weather before another front brings rain
back to the region later Friday through Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Showers will gradually decrease in coverage this evening with the
loss of weak diurnal instability. Overnight, a weak mid level
circulation and associated vorticity maxima will drift north out of
PA, while a weak surface cold front gradually moves south out of
southern Ontario into NY, providing an increase in low level
convergence. This will support an area of showers overnight across
the Southern Tier and western Finger Lakes, with a few spotty
showers still possible across the North Country as well. Expect
mainly dry weather overnight close to Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.
Patchy fog will develop overnight, especially in areas which receive
rainfall this afternoon and evening.

Wednesday, the weak mid level circulation over northeast PA in the
morning will consolidate into a mid level closed low near or just
south of NYC by evening. Meanwhile, a weak surface front will
continue to linger over NY through most of the day. Deep moisture
and weak forcing will again combine with modest diurnal instability
to support increasing showers and a few embedded thunderstorms
through the day. The best coverage of rain will start from the
Southern Tier into the Finger Lakes in the morning, then gradually
spread north through the day. Similar to today, the lowest chance of
rain will be close to Lake Erie and Lake Ontario where stable lake
cooled air lowers instability. Flow will again be weak, supporting
slow motion with any thunderstorms and the risk of locally heavy
rainfall.

Wednesday night, showers will gradually diminish and end from
northwest to southeast as high pressure surface and aloft moves from
the Upper Great Lakes into the Lower Great Lakes overnight. Some
patchy fog may develop again, especially in areas that receive
rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Thursday, a mid level low will be starting the period just off the
Virgina coastline. While most of the precipitation will be centered
near this feature, a stationary boundary draped across eastern
zones may trigger a few showers. Instability is minor, but still
enough that a few rumbles of thunder are possible. Northeast flow
over Lake Ontario will keep the southern shoreline in the low to mid
60s, otherwise most of the area will make a run at 70F.

As a mid level ridge builds towards our region Thursday night, any
shower activity will quickly fade. Mainly dry for Thursday night.

Friday will become a little more active as a trough approaches the
eastern Great Lakes. Ahead of this trough southwest flow of deeper
moisture will fuel more coverage area to showers and perhaps a
thunderstorm for Friday. Greatest coverage area will likely be
Friday night as the trough of low pressure draws closer to our
region.

Southerly flow Friday will aid in temperatures reaching into the 70s
across the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Shower activity continues through most of the long term period. A
trough moving through the area early Saturday will continue the
potential for showers through the morning. As the trough departs to
the east, shower activity will diminish through the day on Saturday.

The potential for showers will continue through the period, but to a
lesser extent then Saturday morning as a few different systems pass
by mainly to the north and south through the rest of the long term
period. A larger trough and mid-level low over the mid-Atlantic will
keep showers in or near the forecast area for much of the forecast
period. The driest day as of now looks like Sunday, but there is
still much variability among the models for the later portion of
the long term and into the new work week.

Temperatures during the period will be mainly above normal with
highs in the low to upper 70s for the lower elevations inland from
the lakes. For the higher terrain and areas closest to the lakes
with onshore winds highs will be in the low 60s to near 70.
Currently, Saturday will be the coolest day of the period, with some
warmer temperatures for Sunday-Tuesday with most of the three days
around the same temperatures for afternoon highs.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions across the region this evening will deteriorate later
tonight...as a stalled frontal boundary in the vcnty of Lake Ontario
will drift south. CIGs will drop of to MVFR levels during the second
half of the night...with IFR conditions in stratus and fog forecast
for most of the TAF sites.

Wednesday, low stratus will continue much of the day, with areas of
MVFR and local IFR CIGS persisting. Showers will again increase in
coverage, with the greatest coverage of rain across inland areas and
the lowest coverage close to Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. A few
spotty thunderstorms may develop in the afternoon again.

Outlook...

Wednesday night...Showers gradually ending. Areas of MVFR/IFR in low
stratus and patchy fog.
Thursday...VFR.
Friday...VFR. A chance of showers late.
Saturday...Areas of MVFR with showers likely.
Sunday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Generally light winds will continue through the remainder of the
week. Winds will become northeast overnight through Wednesday and
increase into the 10-14 knot range on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario,
producing choppy conditions at times. Light winds will return
Thursday as weak high pressure builds over the eastern Great Lakes.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...Thomas
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...Hitchcock/RSH
MARINE...Hitchcock