232
FXUS62 KCHS 302009
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
409 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak disturbance will move through the region tonight into
Wednesday. High pressure will then prevail through late week,
before a weak cold front stalls in the vicinity this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop across far inland
areas and just upstream of the local area as h5 shortwave energy
progresses across weak lee troughing during the next few hours.
Expect precip activity to nudge eastward through evening hours in a
rather disorganized state, encountering an environment with modest
CAPE a shear. However, a few thunderstorms could become strong with
gusty winds and small hail as enhanced forcing associated with the
shortwave interacts with an inland moving seabreeze. The window is
expected to be small for stronger activity with convection likely
waning approaching sunset due to loss of diurnal heating, but
scattered showers and thunderstorms will still be possible overnight
as the h5 shortwave progresses to the coast and ample moisture (PWATS
1.25 to 1.50 inches) reside locally within a light southerly flow.
Given the extent of cloud cover associated with showers/thunderstorms
and perhaps some cirrus, temps should remain more mild than the
previous night and fog concerns should be limited. Expect low temps
to range in the low 60s well inland to mid-upper 60s near the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mid level shortwave will shift off the Carolina coast Wednesday
morning. Convection should be limited in wake of this feature, but a
few isolated showers/thunderstorms will still be possible through
the day with lingering moisture and instability, especially along
the coast.

Ridge builds overhead on Thursday before transitioning offshore on
Friday in advance of a weak shortwave moving in. This pattern will
largely act to suppress convection but will need to monitor
potential for a few storms to impact far inland areas later Friday.

High temperatures peak in the mid to upper 80s inland of the
immediate coast. Lows will span the 60s, coolest inland.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Surface high pressure remains the primary feature, although a weak
front will approach the region and stall before largely dissipating.
Aloft, a series of weak shortwaves will pass through. Expect at
least isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each day.
Highs remain in the mid/upper 80s, while lows stay in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Tempo MVFR cigs are possible with a few showers near the SAV
terminal while a seabreeze makes away inland through 22Z.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected at all airfields with
wind gusts up to 15-20 kt in wake of the seabreeze this
afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms upstream could
eventually impact the terminals early evening. Probabilities
remain too low to include in the latest TAF issuance, but tempo
MVFR cigs/vsbys could eventually be needed. VFR conditions
should then prevail at all terminals by late evening and prevail
through 18Z Wednesday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions possible in
overnight/early morning fog and stratus.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: High pressure centered across the western Atlantic
will extend toward the Southeast Coast while a trough remains
inland. The pattern will favor a southerly sfc wind around 15 kt
or less across local waters with the exception of the Charleston
Harbor into early evening, where 20 kt gusts are possible. Seas
will range between 2-4 ft, largest across offshore Georgia
waters. Mariners should remain alert for thunderstorms tonight,
producing gusty winds and frequent lightning strikes.

Wednesday through Sunday: No marine concerns expected. Atlantic high
pressure will remain the dominant feature with a relatively weak
gradient in the area. Wind speeds will generally stay below 10 kt
except right along the coast with the afternoon sea breeze, and seas
will mostly run 2-3 ft.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...ETM
LONG TERM...ETM
AVIATION...DPB/ETM
MARINE...DPB/ETM