339
FXUS61 KCLE 272323
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
723 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will continue to move north of Lake Erie this
evening as low pressure near Lake Superior tracks northeast
into Ontario and Quebec. A second area of low pressure over the
Plains will move north into the Upper Midwest through Monday
while a large upper ridge remains along the eastern seaboard. A
weak front will move east across the area Monday night into
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
710 PM...The thunderstorm along the lakeshore west of Cleveland
has dissipated with no further additional development
anticipated through this evening. Could still see an isolated
shower or rumble of thunder out west, but chances should remain
low until. Upstream convection eastern IL/western IN should
continue to increase in coverage over the next several hours as
it sags northeast through tonight. This activity could briefly
clip NW OH with rain and/or a few rumbles of thunder.

Previous Discussion...A warm front extends from low pressure
over Lake Superior across eastern Lake Erie into western New
York. This warm front will continue to lift north tonight as the
low tracks northeast across Ontario into Quebec. This has
placed the area in the warm sector with a mix of sun and clouds
and gusty winds this afternoon. Temperatures have surged to near
80 along the I-75 corridor with remaining areas in the 70s. A
few gusts between 40-50 mph have occured in far NW Ohio while
winds farther east have seen gusts more in the 25-35 mph range.
Winds will drop off through 6 PM as the wind field at 850mb
decreases from 40 to 30 knots and mixing depths decrease.

It has been challenging today to figure out where convection
would develop with minimal instability and a lack of forcing.
We have finally seen a few thunderstorms develop near Bowling
Green with scattered showers extending east to almost Akron. It
seems anywhere that has a thicker cu field could be prone to
scattered showers developing through late afternoon with little
organization and ML CAPE values of only 250 J/kg except locally
near 500 J/kg towards Toledo. Weak theta-e advection at and
below 700mb is focused into NW Ohio through the this evening so
it is not surprising to see some development. The theta-e
advection continues to be focused ahead of the frontal boundary
slowly sinking south across the Central Great Lakes. This may
focus additional scattered showers and thunderstorms towards
Erie, PA towards morning. We are forecast to see a little better
instability of around 1000 J/kg on Sunday but mid levels start
to dry and warm air aloft may keep much of the area capped. Best
chances for showers and thunderstorms will be in far NE Ohio
and NW Pennsylvania where a piece of shortwave energy rounding
the ridge may provide a focus for convection. Otherwise
temperatures will be the main story with most of the area near
80 degrees! Sunday night will be mild with lows in the low to
mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
An upper level ridge will persist into Monday morning as the area
remains in the warm sector of an approaching low pressure centered
over the western Great Lakes region. This low pressure and
associated upper level trough will pivot over the region, moving a
cold front east Monday night into Tuesday. Ahead of this front on
Monday afternoon, weak diurnal instability, increasing moisture
values, and a 30-40 knot LLJ may be enough for scattered showers and
thunderstorms to develop, although overall upper level support will
not arrive until Monday night with the aforementioned cold front.
For this reason, kept a chance of rain during the day Monday and
increased to categorical PoPs Monday night into Tuesday ahead and
along the cold front. With a large area of divergence aloft and
isentropic lift, wouldn`t be surprised if there are some rumbles of
thunder overnight as well. By late Tuesday afternoon, a brief weak
high pressure builds north over the area which will allow for
showers to diminish from west to east and result in a dry period
overnight Tuesday. High temperatures on Monday will soar into the
low 80s, approaching records for some climate sites across the area.
Tuesday will be a bit cooler, climbing into the low to mid 70s
behind the departing cold front, but still remaining above normal
for this time of year. Mild overnight lows are expected with
temperatures falling into the upper 50s to low 60s Monday night and
into the low to mid 50s Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
By the middle of the week, a ridge is forecast to nose north into
the area, allowing for much of Wednesday to remain dry. With mostly
sunny skies expected to aid in diurnal instability and moisture
moving along the western edge of that ridge into the area, opted to
keep slight chance of showers in the forecast. The best chance would
be late afternoon/early evening given the more favorable timing, but
will continue to monitor for this potential. The better chance for
rain looks to be Thursday afternoon as an area of upper level energy
pushes east, proving support for more widespread shower development,
although models do diverge in the strength and timing of this energy
which may result in the timing shifting in future forecasts. This
pattern looks to continue into Saturday with multiple shortwaves
moving across the area so a possibly wet end to the week is
possible. Highs on Wednesday will be in the mid to upper 70s,
gradually cooling into the mid to upper 60s by Saturday. Overnight
lows will follow a similar trend, falling into the mid to upper 50s
on Wednesday night but cooling into the low to mid 50s by Friday
night.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
VFR across the TAF sites this evening with mainly VFR expected
through the TAF period. An area of upstream convection across
portions of eastern IL/western IN this evening should continue
to increase in coverage as it sags northeast through tonight,
though confidence remains low on any impacts it may have across
NW OH (TOL). Opted to keep vcsh mention at this time. Otherwise,
an area of showers may develop across Lake Erie overnight,
potentially clipping ERI. Confidence is slightly higher in this
occurrence so kept the previous mention of -shra, though
confidence remains low on if any non-VFR conditions will occur.

Winds are generally out of the southwest this evening, 10 to 15
knots with gusts 20 to 25 knots and periodically up to t0 30
knots at times. Winds should decrease slightly to around 10
knots overnight, before picking back up out of the southwest by
late Sunday morning/afternoon, 10 to 15 knots with gusts of 20
to 25 knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms on Monday. Non-VFR is most likely in showers and
thunderstorms Monday night into Tuesday with a cold front.

&&

.MARINE...
A warm front has lifted north of Lake Erie this afternoon, allowing
for southerly winds of 10-15 knots, with gusts of 20-25 knots to
become established. With the offshore flow, waves along the southern
shore of Lake Erie will remain 1-3 feet, allowing for no Small Craft
Advisory to be needed. South-southwest flow of 10-15 knots will
remain through Monday before a cold front moves east Monday night
into Tuesday. Behind this front, winds will become westerly at 5-10
knots. High pressure will briefly return Tuesday night into
Wednesday, allowing for winds to shift back to southwesterly at 5-10
knots through the end of the week. No marine headlines are expected
at this time.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC/Kahn
SHORT TERM...Campbell
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...Kahn
MARINE...Campbell