Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000
FNUS71 KCTP 141223
FWSCTP

Spot Forecast for Masten...Bureau of Forestry
National Weather Service State College PA
823 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on March 14.

If conditions become unrepresentative, or if you have questions or
concerns with this forecast, contact the National Weather Service
in State College.


.DISCUSSION...
Similar to the last 2 afternoons, we anticipate minimum RH values
to trend lower/outperform the baseline guidance and drop to
around 30% range given good mixing and sufficiently dry air aloft.
A gradual increase in moisture and cloud cover could temper the
drop in RH to some extent by the late afternoon. Light winds
becoming southwest 5 to 6 mph in the afternoon. Rain arrives
Thursday night into Friday with the highest totals (0.25-0.50")
over the western-most districts. Conditions dry out Friday night
and turn progressively colder and breezy later in the weekend into
early next week.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max Temperature.....Around 65.
Min Humidity........30 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 5 to 7 mph late
                    in the afternoon.
Mixing Height.......3700 ft AGL.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 5 to 6 mph shifting to the southwest
                    late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................9 to 27.

TIME (EDT)          9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%)...........  40  29  18  21  24  27  30  34  37
Weather Cov.......
Weather Type......
Tstm Cov..........
LAL...............  1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp..............  47  52  56  59  61  63  65  65  64
RH................  65  54  45  39  33  30  30  34  38
20 FT Wind Dir....  NW  NW  W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  S
20 FT Wind Spd....  4   4   4   4   4   5   6   6   7
20 FT Wind Gust...  5   5   6   6   6   7   10  10  11
Mix Hgt (kft).....  0.4 0.9 1.5 2.2 2.8 3.3 3.7 3.7 2.7
Transp Wind Dir...  N   N   NW  W   W   W   SW  SW  SW
Transp Wind Spd...  5   6   6   6   6   8   9   10  10
LVORI.............  3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
ADI...............  9   9   9   20  20  20  27  27  27
Haines Index......  5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5

.TONIGHT...

Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (45-55 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of rain
                    early in the evening, then rain likely in the
                    late evening and overnight.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Min Temperature.....Around 50.
Max Humidity........89 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 7 to 11 mph. Gusts up to 22 mph in
                    the late evening and overnight.
Mixing Height.......600 ft AGL.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 10 to 17 mph shifting to the west
                    around 16 mph early in the morning.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................11 to 15.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%)...........  48  58  69  73  77  81  85  89  93  94  94  95
Weather Cov.......  CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather Type......  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN
Tstm Cov..........
LAL...............  1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp..............  62  59  57  56  56  55  54  54  53  52  52  53
RH................  43  51  59  62  64  69  71  71  80  86  89  89
20 FT Wind Dir....  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT Wind Spd....  7   7   9   9   10  11  11  10  11  11  11  11
20 FT Wind Gust...  10  11  14  14  16  18  17  17  18  17  17  18
Mix Hgt (kft).....  1.2 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9
Transp Wind Dir...  S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W
Transp Wind Spd...  10  10  13  15  16  17  17  17  16  16  16  16
LVORI.............  2   2   2   2   2   3   3   3   4   4   5   5
ADI...............  11  11  11  15  15  15  15  15  15  14  14  14
Haines Index......  5   5   4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3   3   3

$$
Forecaster...DeVoir
Requested by...Brian Laudermilch
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2406915.0/CTP
.DELDT 03/14/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL blaudermil@pa.gov


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