415
ACUS48 KWNS 080846
SWOD48
SPC AC 080844

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0344 AM CDT Wed May 08 2024

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Severe potential on Day 4/Saturday should remain rather limited
across the CONUS, as a cold front continues southward over the FL
Peninsula. Still, post-frontal low-level easterly flow should occur
across parts of northern Mexico into south TX. With steep mid-level
lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear present over this region,
any thunderstorm that can form and move off the higher terrain of
northern Mexico could some hail and gusty winds. Even so, the
overall severe threat currently appears too limited/isolated to add
a 15% severe area across south TX.

From Day 5/Sunday into early next week, a weak upper trough/low
should progress slowly eastward from the Southwest across the
southern/central Plains, and eventually the MS Valley. Weak
low-level mass response ahead of this feature should encourage a
northward return of rich low-level moisture over parts of the
southern Plains and lower MS Valley/Southeast. Some severe risk may
exist each day across these regions. But, differences in evolution
of the upper trough, along with uncertainty in how far inland the
rich/moist low-level airmass will be able to advance, suggest
predictability remains too low to include any severe areas.

..Gleason.. 05/08/2024