622
FXUS63 KDDC 090701
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
201 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and mostly quiet weather through the end of the workweek

- Increasing chances of rain through the weekend.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

06z observations and RAP upper air analysis shows some 500 mb
vorticity advection leading to a band of mid level clouds
developing across far southwest Kansas. An upper level low
centered over Sioux Falls, SD has led to a cold front sweeping
across the central plains and cold air advection extending into
central Oklahoma.

Throughout today an upper level low is expected to develop in
Utah and will propagate an upper level shortwave which is
expected to move into southwest Kansas from the late morning
through the early afternoon. This will keep a band of mid to
high level clouds in place and with little moisture near the
surface the rain chances should be less than 15%...however some
virga or sprinkles could be possible from the late morning
through the afternoon. Winds in the boundary layer will be out
of the north through the day so diurnal heating will only
increase 850 mb temperatures modestly to 12-14 (C). Highs will
be mainly in the lower to mid 70s.

Tonight the upper low moves into western Colorado and a 700 mb
shortwave is forecast to go from southeast Colorado to
southwest Kansas. Short term models are hinting at a band of
rain showers trying to make it from southeast Colorado into
southwest Kansas. As a result I added (~20%) POPs from Elkhart
to Liberal during the overnight hours and rainfall amounts if
they occur should only be a few hundredths.

Friday with west to northwest flow along and winds in the
boundary layer still out of the north we should continue with a
cooler air mass and some mid to high level clouds to decrease
the diurnal heating a bit. Highs should once again get back into
the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Dry conditions continue through Saturday afternoon as a weak
ridge of high pressure builds over the Plains. This will lead
to mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and light northerly
winds. An upper level low will spin above the four corners
region during this time frame then trek closer to the area this
weekend into the first part of next week. As this low gets
closer, weak disturbances may swing into the area bringing a
chance of precipitation to western Kansas. Otherwise expect an
increase in cloudiness. Temperatures throughout the long term
will generally be in the 70s Friday with upper 70s to low 80s
Saturday and Sunday. 80s return as highs as we head into the
first part of next week. Lows will start out in the 40s with
some 50s across the eastern half of the CWA this weekend into
the first part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1157 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

VFR flight category for all terminals during the TAF time cycle.
A band of mid level clouds will likely lead to BKN to OVC skies
at times through the morning hours. Winds in general should be
sustained at 8-12 kts with gusts to 15 kts.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Tatro
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Tatro