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000
FXUS63 KDLH 241725
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1225 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions today and tomorrow will lead to some elevated fire
  weather concerns.

- Active weather pattern picks up to end the work week and
  carries us into next week. Two low pressure systems will bring
  widespread rain showers and some thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 348 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Current conditions/Today:

Quiet weather this morning as surface high pressure retreats to the
east. Southerly winds will stream across the region today. Mostly
sunny skies will see highs climb into the 50s and 60s. Dry
conditions will be prevalent with min Rhs dropping into the 20s.
While we won`t see much in the way of wind the low Rhs lend
themselves to elevated fire weather concerns with an SPS out for
northern MN. Additionally, another lake breeze will push inland
around midday and permeate from the lake into the late afternoon
hours.

Tomorrow:

Thursday will see an uptick in wind as a tighter pressure gradient
sets up over the Northland. Another dry day is expected with
elevated fire weather concerns again. Clouds will begin to
increase later in the day with highs climbing into the 60s.

CO Low Friday - Saturday:

Quite an active pattern for the Northland as we round out the week
and head into the weekend. Late Thursday a Colorado Low is expected
to develop. Ensemble low tracks have a good consensus with bringing
this low through Nebraska and into southern MN by Saturday. Onset
time still remains a bit contested between the GFS and Euro members
but high confidence in the overall track bringing some widespread
showers and possibly storms to the Northland beginning Friday. This
system will continue northeast through the Great Lakes region on
Saturday with continued chances for rain. The convective parameters
with this system aren`t overly impressive. It does sport some low
end instability and a strong low level jet of 40-50 kts. But
the better ingredients still look to be to our south with this
forecast package.

Second Low Sunday - Monday:

Right on the heels of the aforementioned Colorado Low is yet another
Low pressure swinging in from the Central Plains for Sunday. The
spread on low tracks with this one is a bit higher but cluster
analysis shows high confidence in bringing an upper level trough
through the Upper Midwest. We still seem to be on the northern side
of the system per the 00Z suite of deterministic guidance. Some
thunderstorms will once again remain possible and depending on the
low track we could see severe weather encroach on the region.
Chances still look poor at the moment but there has been a subtle
northwest shift over the past 48 hours.

Rain Totals:

As is typical of these large lows swinging in from the Plains it
will garner some rich gulf moisture as the low level jet ramps up
from the south. Beginning Friday we will see PWATs in excess of the
90th percentile for a prolonged period. 1.5-2.0 inches of rainfall
look possible for NW WI. Depending on how the second low tracks we
could see an extended gulf connection leading to some excessive
rainfall concerns.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

VFR conditions are expected for the TAF period. An area of MVFR
cumulus that passed over HIB that was approaching DLH is
starting to dissipate and is unlikely that it will cause any
restrictions. Light and variable winds are expected until
Thursday morning when winds will increase due to an approaching
system that will bring moderate rain to the Northland this
weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 348 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Easterly winds continue to stream across the Lake today. Wind speeds
and wave heights should be decreasing by late morning. Friday will
be the start of a prolonged period of strong winds across the Lake
as two weather systems move across the Northland through the weekend
and into early next week.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Britt
AVIATION...KML
MARINE...Britt