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Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 142012
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
212 PM MDT Sun Apr 14 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Very windy conditions are expected for Monday along with blowing
dust and high to very high fire danger. A quieter pattern returns
for Tuesday into next weekend with warm and breezy afternoons.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Sun Apr 14 2024

It is breezy and warm this afternoon with some high clouds. This
is courtesy of some southwesterly flow aloft and some high-level
subtropical moisture with a relatively weak, broad lee cyclone
over NE NM. We are upstream of an UL low just southwest of Fresno,
CA. That feature will be the headliner for tomorrow. It will
continue to the east or east-northeast tonight, over UT by
sunrise, and then crossing CO throughout the afternoon. This will
bring its jet streak (120+ knots at H250 and 85+ kts at H500)
overhead, while deepening a sub-990 mb surface cyclone over NE CO
with the trough axis arching toward southern NM. Meanwhile,
Pacific front will be moving west to east to further pack the
gradient. It`s going to be very windy Monday. H850 and H700 are 25
to 35 and 35 to 45 knots, respectively with mixing occurring to
600 mb. Thus, wind gusts are going to be near or over high wind
warning criteria for many locations. High wind warning still
matches the 75th percentile fairly well, which is usually an
indication of top gust, but guidance has backed off a couple knots
since I upgraded the watch yesterday. Thus, high wind warning is
a bit more marginal for areas west of the Rio Grande, except the
Gila, but numbers are still high enough to warrant leaving the
headlines unchanged. With the wind will also come areas of blowing
dust, especially downwind of White Sands NP and along the
International Border. The fire danger will also be very high. See
the fire discussion below for more information. Outdoor burning is
highly discouraged.

In the system`s wake, we`ll go into quasi-zonal to northwesterly
flow aloft. Another s/w is expected to pass to our south Tuesday
night into Wednesday, but impacts look minimal. If anything the
low will weaken winds as isoheights/isobars leave us within a bit
of a saddle-point. Regardless, the pattern will leave us warm and
fairly breezy each afternoon Tuesday through Thursday. A backdoor
front will try and enter the CWA on Friday or Saturday, bringing
with it a bit of moisture and a bit cooler temperatures if it
successfully makes it into our area. However, confidence it will
bring much in the way of impacts, if any, is fairly low.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1124 AM MDT Sun Apr 14 2024

VFR conditions expected through the period with generally SCT-
BKN250. Winds will become breezy this afternoon, generally
240-270, with speeds of 10-15 knots and gusts up to 25 knots.
Winds subside again after dark. Toward the end of the TAF cycle
and especially just beyond as we get into tomorrow afternoon,
strong winds are expected along with the possibility of BLDU, with
a moderate chance for significant reductions in VIS. Future
updates will discuss further.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Sun Apr 14 2024

CRITICAL TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR
MONDAY. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for Monday for all
but the Gila Fire Zone (NM110).

Tonight will feature poor overnight recoveries. Increasing winds
and high clouds will keep morning lows a few degrees warmer than
this morning. Temperatures will warm much above normal by
afternoon, yielding min RH values well into the single digits. It
will be very windy as well as a system passes to our north.
Afternoon 20-foot winds of 25 to 35 MPH with gusts of 45-55 MPH
will be common. The strong winds and low RH values will foster
RFTI values of 6-8 for all but NM Zone 110. The Gila will fare a
little better as min RH values fall into the mid and upper teens.
ERCs also remain well below normal there whereas elsewhere values
are at or above normal for this time of year. Winds will subside
after dark for most locations with higher elevations and east
slope areas decreasing after midnight.

For the rest of the period, very dry conditions will remain, but
winds will only top out around 10 to 15 MPH each afternoon. Thus,
no critical fire concerns are anticipated Tuesday through Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  64  84  50  81 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            60  83  44  74 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               54  79  44  81 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               54  77  42  76 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               42  53  31  53 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    49  73  44  78 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              42  62  37  69 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   46  75  39  78 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                43  71  37  75 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       61  82  47  78 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                52  84  42  80 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             60  88  45  80 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               57  76  42  72 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   60  86  46  80 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             56  79  42  77 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           60  78  48  78 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            50  76  39  77 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    49  76  39  80 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 51  78  44  78 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                54  77  41  76 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  49  67  39  68 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                48  64  36  64 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 44  64  34  63 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  43  64  38  71 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                45  70  38  77 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                47  74  39  77 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             39  62  32  71 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   40  66  34  73 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    43  68  37  76 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               41  63  37  71 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  44  66  37  73 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   44  74  39  76 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  46  76  39  76 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           47  76  38  77 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               44  70  39  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Warning from 1 PM to 10 PM MDT Monday for TXZ419>421.

     Wind Advisory from 1 PM to 10 PM MDT Monday for TXZ418-422>424.

     Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 10 PM MDT Monday for TXZ055-056.

NM...High Wind Warning from 1 PM to 10 PM MDT Monday for NMZ403-
     406>411-414>417-425>427.

     Wind Advisory from 1 PM to 10 PM MDT Monday for NMZ401-404-405-
     428-429.

     Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 10 PM MDT Monday for NMZ111>113.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...34-Brown
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
