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000
FXUS62 KFFC 200604
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
204 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

...New 06Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 243 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Surface boundary currently stretches from the eastern Great Lakes
back through NW GA. This boundary will slowly sag southward tonight
and stall over central portions of the state through the remainder of
the short term period. Nearly zonal flow in the mid levels will
continue through the period also.

Hi-res convective models have struggled with convection over the
last few days and today is no exception. The models have been fairly
consistent with convective initiation timing, but coverage of storms
has been an issue. Earlier runs of the ARW looked better in terms of
storm coverage than the HRRR. Earlier convection east central AL
produced an outflow boundary. Convection would likely fire in and
around the outflow boundary this afternoon and evening. Do think once
convection fires, it could be more organized than the high res
models are indicating. Strong storms are definitely possible, with
isolated severe thunderstorms also possible. The primary severe
hazards would be large hail and damaging wind gusts.

Early Sat looks mostly dry. Some isold/scat storms are possible
along the old frontal boundary. But, precipitation should become more
organized later in the afternoon and into the overnight hours as a
strong shortwave moves east in the mid level flow. The atmosphere
will once again be favorable for strong/isold severe storms capable
of producing hail and gusty winds.

NListemaa

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday morning through next Thursday)
Issued at 243 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Sunday is expected to bring scattered to widespread showers and
isolated thunderstorms as a shortwave trough kicks through. PWAT is
progged to be 1.0-1.5 inches (the daily maximum per sounding
climatology is ~1.3 inches). The overnight and morning runs of the
SREF have depicted less instability across central Georgia with
200-800 J/kg of SBCAPE generally along and south of a line from
Columbus to Macon to Sandersville. Surface-to-500-mb bulk shear of
45-55 kts, along with the marginal instability, suggest the
possibility of a few strong storms with gusty to damaging winds. SPC
currently has just a General Thunder risk across this area. Cooler,
more stable air will be in place across the rest of the forecast
area, characterized by lows in the upper 40s to mid-50s and highs in
the mid-50s to mid-60s. The QPF between Saturday and Sunday ranges
from 0.5" to 0.8".

The shortwave trough is progged to move east of the forecast area on
Monday with high pressure in tow. Dry conditions will prevail
through Thursday thanks to high pressure. A relatively cooler/mild
start to the week will give way to gradually warming conditions.
Highs will be in the lower 70s to lower 80s Wednesday and Thursday.

Martin

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 151 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Showers have tapered off across the area. Low cigs are expected to
expand over the Atlanta metro area late tonight, but there is quite a
bit of uncertainty as to whether MVFR cigs will develop.
Thunderstorms are possible this afternoon at CSG. Rainfall at all
other terminals is forecast to hold off until around 06Z as a
shortwave and associated frontal wave move across the S portion of
the area and isentropic lift increases. Winds will be generally light
out of the W-NW, but gusts to 20 knots will be possible during the
afternoon.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Medium for morning cigs, high for other elements.

SEC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          53  59  47  65 /  60  90  20  10
Atlanta         54  58  47  64 /  70  80  10  10
Blairsville     46  55  38  63 /  50  70  10  10
Cartersville    47  57  41  66 /  60  80  10   0
Columbus        58  64  49  69 /  70  80  10   0
Gainesville     53  57  48  64 /  60  80  10  10
Macon           58  66  51  67 /  50  90  20  10
Rome            49  59  42  69 /  50  70   0   0
Peachtree City  52  59  46  66 /  70  90  10  10
Vidalia         65  74  54  66 /  40  80  50  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

$$

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....Martin
AVIATION...SEC