Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 271737
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
137 PM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024


...New 18Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 412 AM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024

A stationary boundary is currently draped across our far
southeastern counties as a cold front just to our west will be
making its way through the forecast area today. For locations across
north and central Georgia, areas of dense fog have developed and are
expected to persist through the morning hours. Have opted to issue a
Dense Fog Advisory for areas of 1/4 statute mile visibilities that
are expected over a handful of counties across western Georgia
through 10AM. Will be keeping an eye on fog development this morning
should any counties outside of the advisory area need to be added.
The stationary boundary across southeast Georgia will serve as the
focal point for waves of convective activity to continue today.
Despite this area being fairly worked over during the overnight
hours, we`ve still seen some isolated thunderstorm activity persist
in this sector. Today, mid level lapse rates ~6.5 C/km, bulk shear
>30KT, and MUCAPE increasing to ~500-1000 J/kg could produce strong
to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts and hail up
to 1".

Forcing for the cold front moving through today is lacking as the
parent low is occluded and displaced far northward over southern
Ontario. As a result, shower and thunderstorm activity will
ultimately persist along and southeast of the stationary boundary
over far southeast Georgia overnight tonight and through Thursday`s
morning hours as the cold front slowly sags southeastward. The front
will finally clear the area Thursday early afternoon as a
progressive shortwave embedded within the 500-mb flow moves over the
forecast area. As dry continental air continues to filter in across
the forecast area through the day, critical thresholds for minimum
relative humidity are likely to be met across a large portion of the
forecast area by Thursday afternoon. Northwest winds will be quite
breezy with sustained wind speeds between 10 and 15 mph with winds
gusting between 25 and 30 mph. Ridgelines in areas of high terrain
across north Georgia could see wind gusts approaching 35 mph through
the day Thursday.

KAL

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 412 AM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024

The long term forecast remains largely on track with ridging aloft
and mostly warm and dry conditions. As the ridge breaks down
during the first part of the week, rain and the chance for
thunderstorms return to the forecast at the end of the long term
period. See previous discussion for more details.

(Thursday morning through next Monday)
Issued at 244 PM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Kicking off the long term outlook Thursday morning, the stalled front
finally moves out of the area, taking PoPs with it. The expansive
trough finishes pushing through by Friday morning and broad high
pressure ridging builds over the Southeast CONUS. Post frontal
conditions will mean moisture is slow to return to GA, as weak
surface flow through the weekend slowly raises PWATs back above 0.5"
Saturday afternoon. Ridging also means that any shortwave
disturbance will continue to trek around us. Temperatures will
likely rise well above normal, with highs near 80 across North GA
and some mid 80s through central GA. Lows through the weekend will
begin in the high 30s but will progress to the mid to upper 50s by
Sunday night. Our next chance for precip returns as the ridge slowly
drifts eastward Monday into Tuesday. PoPs should remain low though,
as model agreement this far out remain low as well.

SM

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 128 PM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Low ceilings from this morning has lifted and scattered out at
AHN/ATL as the period begins. Some MVFR level clouds remain near
MCN/AHN, but are expected to improve to VFR by 20Z. Winds will be
primarily NW at 6-10 kts this afternoon and evening. Scattered to
broken clouds around 060 will be possible after 22Z and into the
evening hours. Winds will begin to gradually increase after
midnight, rising to 10-14 kts with wind gusts of 20-25 kts by 12Z
on Thursday morning and through the remainder of the day.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High confidence on all elements.

King

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          49  69  40  71 /  10  10   0   0
Atlanta         47  66  42  70 /  10  10   0   0
Blairsville     40  60  34  66 /  10   0   0   0
Cartersville    43  64  35  71 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus        50  71  43  73 /   0  10   0   0
Gainesville     48  66  40  70 /  10  10   0   0
Macon           52  71  43  72 /  20  10   0   0
Rome            43  66  36  71 /   0   0   0   0
Peachtree City  46  68  39  72 /  10  10   0   0
Vidalia         56  70  44  71 /  70  20   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAL
LONG TERM....SM
AVIATION...King


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