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000
FXUS63 KFGF 191748
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1248 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to numerous snow showers today into this evening.
  Brief reductions to below 1 mile visibility at times. Highest
  coverage in northwest Minnesota.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Some more intense snow showers with some fairly big dendrites
moving through the central/northern Red River Valley into
northwestern MN. Even a bit of sleet/graupel mixing in at times.
Temperatures are higher and there are not much impacts on
surfaces, but there are some reductions to visibility down to a
half or a quarter of a mile at times with the heavier snow
showers. Extended the SPS for heavy snow shower mention through
mid afternoon and will reevaluate for the evening commute.

UPDATE
Issued at 1003 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

With the light accumulation on roads and some reductions to
visibility, put out an SPS for our snow showers in northwestern
MN for a while this morning. Temperatures are rising above
freezing so impacts will not be too much more of a problem and
should be able to let it expire at 16Z. With some reports of
flurries as far south as Grand Forks, did expand the likely POPs
a bit further south into the Highway 2 corridor.


UPDATE
Issued at 656 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Webcams at sunrise is showing a light accumulation of snow in
the far northern Red River valley and thru far NW MN from
Pembina and Drayton to near Bemidji and north. Was able to look
up CYWG and CYBR in Manitoba and their obs and light snow in
their area and per radar scattered light snow thru southern
Sask, Manitoba into NW Ontario and north central ND. So idea of
on/off snow showers today, esp north half, is looking good.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

500 mb low moving slowly east into NW Ontario early this
morning. Short wave trough, vort lobe, extends WSW into southern
Saskatchewan at 07z. This vort lobe/short wave trough will move
into the Red River valley this aftn. 500 mb temps rise a couple
degrees from Thursday, but enough lift with this short wave
trough to generate scattered snow showers, with numerous snow
showers in NW MN into the evening. Highs today above freezing
all areas, but any brief heavy snow showers will bring
visibility reductions to less than 1 mile and a quick
accumulation. Most likely area for this seems to be Pembina area
east to Warroad and south to Grygla / Bagley MN area.

Windy today though winds aloft a tad less than on Thursday.
Coord with BIS and no wind advisory today but BUFKIT soundings
suggest wind gusts 33-35 kts (40 mph) and sustained winds around
25 mph.

Based on coord with neighbors went with coverage wording and
expanded pops to include all areas into the evening.

Clearing will work into E ND late tonight, with clearing
progressing east on Saturday. Drier 850 mb airmass moves in
which should lead to a mostly sunny day. Though potential for
daytime CU is there as temps reach upper 40s to low 50s. Breezy
still with NW winds 15-25 mph.

High pressure axis slides east over the area Sunday but center
is well south. So still a 10 kt wind from the west turning
southwest or south late. Warmer with highs mid 50s to low 60s
and should be plenty of sun.

500 mb pattern heading into next week shows overall a westerly
flow but within that flow are several 500 mb short waves. One
moves into Alberta Sunday and then moves east-southeast around a
trough over Quebec and northeast Ontario into the Dakotas Monday
night. This system will bring a good chance for rain showers to
the area Monday into Tuesday. Rain amounts look light, with only
a 20 percent chance of more than 0.25 inch in a 24 hour period
12z Mon-12z Tue.

Another short wave trough moves into the western US and western
Canada late next week bringing additional rain chances days next
Thu-Fri.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Snow showers going in and out of most of the airports, bringing
vis down into the 3-5SM range at times or even 1SM or lower.
Ceilings are mostly VFR, but down to MVFR at times. The snow
showers will be mostly done by early evening, but some MVFR
ceilings will hang on a bit longer during the overnight hours.
Most sites should return to VFR by the end of the period. Winds
from the northwest gusting to above 30 kts will settle down a
bit around sunset, but will remain fairly breezy through the
overnight before dropping down into the 10 to 15 kt range by
Saturday morning.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...JR