Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 232100
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
300 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 257 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

Main story of the short term forecast will be the fire danger for
Friday. Tonight brings lows much warmer than normal as warm
advection and a light breeze interfere with radiational
cooling ahead of an approaching cold front.

Surface cold front arrives by mid morning Friday, bringing cold air
advection aloft and rapid pressure rises. Have accordingly continued
the trend of boosting winds above guidance during this period.
Expect a windy Friday with northwesterly winds up to 25 knots
sustained and up to 35 knot gusts. Just below wind advisory criteria
but when combined with minimum RH values in the 30s along and west
of the James River, fire danger will be very high. The paucity of
moisture will also preclude any mention of precipitation even as
some decent QG forcing arrives around noon.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 257 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

Longwave ridging builds in for Saturday through the first half of
Monday, with some very warm temperatures for November expected
Sunday and Monday thanks to the warm air aloft and plenty of
southerly warm advection expected. Have gone with the trend in
previous shifts and boosted highs above guidance for those two days.

The next wave begins to swing across Monday, bringing the next cold
frontal passage to the region sometime around Monday evening.
This will herald a return to more seasonable temperatures for the
remainder of the extended forecast. This wave has the potential
to bring precipitation to our CWA sometime during the Monday
afternoon - Wednesday time frame but, in the spirit of the pattern
we`ve been stuck in as of late, none of the operational runs and
few of the GEFS members currently show both forcing and moisture
coming together in our neck of the woods.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1114 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

VFR conditions and relatively light south to southwest winds will
prevail across most of the area through tonight. Exception on the
winds will be along and northeast of Buffalo Ridge in southwest
Minnesota, where occasional gusts of 20-25kt are possible later
today and through tonight.

A front will sweep through the region Friday morning, followed by
increasing northwest winds. Frequent gusts in excess of 25kt are
likely in most areas by late in this TAF period.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ferguson
LONG TERM...Ferguson
AVIATION...JH


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