Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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197
FXUS63 KFSD 041149
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
549 AM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 319 AM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

Shortwave trough swinging through the region this morning will exit
to the east by mid afternoon. Some patchy fog persists east of James
River, but will continue to lift from west to east through mid
morning. Southerly surface winds remain marginally breezy early this
morning, but will gradually shift to the west as the day progresses.
Clouds will likewise begin to scour out in the south and west this
morning, followed by areas east of I29 this afternoon. With the
increasing sunshine and westerly winds, warmed high temperatures a
few more degrees west of I29. Overall looks like a seasonally mild
day with highs in the mid or upper 30s in southwest MN where clouds
hang on longest, ranging to the lower to mid 40s near the Missouri
Valley.

Weak ridging slides east across the region tonight. Return flow will
shift low level winds back to the south. Mid and high clouds will be
on the increase this evening into the early morning hours. Expect
temperatures to drop this evening, then stabilize as the clouds and
southerly winds kick in. Could even see a little warming late
tonight, so went with more of a non diurnal temperature curve
heading towards daybreak Monday. Lows will be in the mid 20s to near
30.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 319 AM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

One final warm day on Monday with fairly dense cloud cover 10K feet
and above.  Despite the cloud cover and low sun angle, will still
have some mixing to result in highs in the 40s across much of the
area.  Will be much more of a struggle to warm west of the James
River Valley with fair amount of low level moisture, and have kept
highs in the 30s.

Well advertised cold front works through in the afternoon hours and
temperatures aloft keep dropping throughout much of the week.  With
this continued cold air advection and relatively tight pressure
gradient, have raised winds in the Tuesday through Thursday time
frame.  Have also increased Pops on Thursday as wave drops through
Minnesota with reinforcing cold front.  Very dendritic atmosphere in
the lowest 200-300 mb will result in efficient atmosphere to produce
snow.

Temperatures moderate some on Friday as upper trough over the Great
Lakes region shifts east.  However, intensifying wave is expected to
move out of the Pacific northwest and move into the plains next
weekend. This appears to be the best chance of accumulating snow
across the area for the next week, and accordingly, have the highest
pops. Dendritic layer appears to be fairly deep with this system,
but winds do not appear to be overly strong.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 544 AM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

Low stratus remains along and east of I-29, with clearing skies
to the west. Expect the stratus to continue to shift eastward,
with skies becoming vfr areawide by 20z. Low ceilings will linger
longest in the Windom, Iowa Great Lakes, and Storm Lake areas.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected. Mid and high clouds
increase this evening and overnight, but should remain VFR.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...BT
AVIATION...



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