Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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000
FXUS63 KFSD 202041
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
341 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

WEAKENING MID LEVEL BOUNDARY WITH ATTENDANT CLOUDS VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION EXITING THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM THE NORTH WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE LIKELY IN MOST LOCATIONS BY DINNER TIME OR SHORTLY AFTER.
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUDS SHOULD BRING A COOL MORNING ON
THURSDAY...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY TO 40 TO 45 MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.

A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH MINNESOTA ON THURSDAY AND
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL KICK UP TO ABOUT 10 TO 20 MPH OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE MORE IN THE RANGE
OF 5 TO 15 MPH. LOTS OF SUN AND A MUCH NEEDED REST FROM THE COOL
WEATHER AS HIGH REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...PROVIDING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS WILL
RUN LOWER TO MID 40S. THE SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO PUSH OFF TO THE
EAST ON FRIDAY WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE REGION BEHIND
THE EXITING HIGH. WHILE MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE SUNNY...MAY SEE SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS IN OUR SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON OUT AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA. THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE
A BIT WARMER FOR FRIDAY...AND LOOKING AT HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
70S...TAPERING DOWN TO MID/UPPER 60S THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA WHERE CLOUDS MAY COME IN DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY.

THE SHORTWAVE THEN LIFTS INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
MODELS HOLD OFF MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE SYSTEM UNTIL
LATER ON FRIDAY NIGHT...AND KEPT HIGHER POPS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AND WESTWARD...CLOSER TO THE BETTER FORCING. WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW IT WILL BE A RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. WILL PROBABLY HAVE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TRACK ACROSS AT LEAST OUR NORTH AND WEST EARLY ON
SATURDAY AS THE WAVE LIFTS INTO NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE DAY. WITH
THE CLOUDS/SHOWERS IT WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
60S.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE...MODELS IN FAIRLY POOR AGREEMENT ON BOTH
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE MODELS POINT TO UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH
THE EXTENDED...TIMING OF PRECIPITATION IS VERY DIFFICULT. IN LIGHT
OF THAT...STUCK WITH CONSENSUS WHICH WOULD PUT BETTER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AROUND THE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY TIME PERIOD...WITH
LESSER CHANCES FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. CONSENSUS KEEPS HIGHS
IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

MVFR CEILINGS WILL EXIT THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...THEN VFR THROUGHT THE REMAINING TIME.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...08



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