Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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000
FXUS63 KFSD 261725
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1125 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

BACK END OF SNOW SYSTEM WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING AND SHOULD WEAKEN SLOWLY AS IT DOES. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO PICK UP FROM THE WEST AND NORTH. THE CURRENT ADVISORY
LOOKS GOOD WITH THIS SECOND SURGE MOVING ACROSS AND THE WINDS DUE TO
PICK UP. HAVE CONSIDERED ADDING THE NORTHERN COUNTIES FROM HON TO
BKX BUT WITH HON HAVING ALMOST NO SNOW SO FAR AND BKX A LITTLE SLOWER
ON THE WIND PICKUP...HAVE ELECTED TO LEAVE OUT. EVEN BKX HAS
LESS SNOW THAN FSD...WE HAVE AN INCH...AND THE WINDS WILL PICK
UP A LITTLE SLOWER THAN AT HON. WILL KEEP SOME BLOWING SNOW IN THE
FORECAST AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR. THE SECOND SURGE HAS DICTATED MORE
SNOW MENTION AND A LITTLE HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THIS STRETCH FROM NOW
THROUGH MID OR LATE MORNING...BUT IT WILL STILL MOVE OUT TO THE
SOUTHEAST RAPIDLY LATER IN THE MORNING. SOME SNOW WILL HANG ON IN
THE ADVISORY AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE SOME BLOWING
SNOW IN THAT AREA PAST THE NOON ADVISORY EXPIRATION.

SKIES MAY PARTIALLY CLEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR A WHILE OVER THE
AREA WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER BUT AN ASSORTMENT OF MID AND LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. BETTER CLEARING
SHOULD TAKE PLACE FURTHER EAST...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST...THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SKIES REMAINING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY THERE TONIGHT.
THE CLOUD INCREASE TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL BE FROM WARM ADVECTION
UPSTAIRS STARTING IN ALREADY. WILL KEEP A FEW FLURRIES FAR SOUTHWEST
LATE TONIGHT BUT THAT SHOULD BE IT WITH LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT TO
ACCOMPANY THE WARM ADVECTION.

THE STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE IN THE WEST
AND SOUTH WHERE THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH SNOW TO BLOW...AND AM
CURRENTLY PROJECTING THESE WINDS TO STAY A LITTLE BELOW WIND
ADVISORY LEVELS. FURTHER EAST...THE SLIGHTLY LESS STRONG WINDS PLUS
THE LATER PICKUP SHOULD PREVENT TOO MANY PROBLEMS ONCE THE FALLING
SNOW ENDS...THUS KEEPING THE ADVISORY EXPIRATION AT NOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING MOST OF TODAY...MAYBE BRIEFLY
LEVELING OFF EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE RESUMING A DROP TONIGHT.
READINGS WILL DROP BELOW ZERO LATE TONIGHT NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST. THE WIND DROPOFF SHOULD KEEP WIND CHILLS DROPPING TO THE
MINUS 20 AND COLDER ZONE WHICH IS OUR ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
THAT...BUT THE FAR NORTHEAST WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES MAY GET
CLOSE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A RATHER PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE
CONUS AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CROSS THE REGION FOR THANKSGIVING AS MID-LVL HEIGHTS BUILD THROUGH
THE DAY.  LOW-LVL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE QUICKLY BY
THURSDAY MORNING AND CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES THROUGH THE DAY
AS THIS MID-LVL BAND OF MOISTURE/LIFT CROSSES THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH AN EXCEPTION ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE WARMER TEMPERATURE WILL BEGIN TO CREEP
NORTHEAST. SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A STOUT UPPER LVL JET WILL PRODUCE
A BAND OF SNOW TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CWA LATE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

WARM WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY AND EVEN INTO SATURDAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE UPPER 40S IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES...WITH A RATHER WARM FRIDAY
NIGHT PERIOD.

A BLAST OF COLD AIR WILL RACE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AND DROP TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW NORMAL. THIS PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN WILL LIKELY NOT SUPPORT SUSTAINED LONG-DURATION COLD
SPELLS...AS SIGNS POINT TO A QUICK REBOUND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL BY
THE VERY END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1119 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

SNOW HAS ENDED FOR TAF SITES WITH LIGHT SNOW CONFINED TO PORTIONS
OF SW MN AND NW IA. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT KSUX THOUGH
MID AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KTS WILL DIMINISH FAIRLY
RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. OTHERWISE...AFTER
CLOUDS EXIT KSUX THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
18Z THURSDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...SCHUMACHER


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