Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 280346
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1046 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

TRAILING LOBE OF UPPER SYSTEM WHICH MOVED TO THE NORTHEAST WILL
PASS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA FAIRLY EARLY THIS EVENING AND LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL END. CLOUDS WILL TEMPORARILY DECREASE FROM THE
WEST AND WINDS WILL SLACK OFF. SECONDARY WAVE WILL BRING THE PUSH OF
COLDER AIR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE
IN NORTHWEST WINDS AGAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S
TONIGHT. THEY COULD DROP A COUPLE DEGREES COLDER IN SOME AREAS THEN
GET MIXED BACK UP A LITTLE WITH THE SECOND WAVE...BUT WILL NOT GET
TOO CUTE WITH THAT AS SOME LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE ADVANCING BEFORE
REAL LATE TONIGHT.

TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE A CLOUDY AND BREEZY TO WINDY DAY OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OR MORE OF THE AREA...UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY
WHEN CLOUDS WILL START RECEDING. CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD LINGER THROUGH
THE DAY FAR NORTHEAST THOUGH. SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
OVER THE SOUTHWEST CORNER. THE COOLER AIR WILL BE IN AND HIGHS
SHOULD BE HELD TO THE MID 40S OVER THE CLOUDY NORTHEAST TO THE
LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AFTER DECREASING
CLOUDS EAST/NORTHEAST IN THE EVENING...AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES
OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL GET A GOOD CRACK AT DROPPING A FEW
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING EXCEPT TO ABOUT FREEZING FAR EAST WHERE A
LITTLE BREEZE MAY LINGER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

COOL AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ARRIVES BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE AND
PERSISTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR
THE BULK OF THE DAY AND RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING ON WEDNESDAY WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER...AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE DROPPING
ALONG THE NORTHWEST FLOW. WITHOUT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND
VERY DRY LOWER LEVELS...CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN DRY WITH ONLY SOME
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE WAVE TRACKS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

RIDGING SHARPENS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON THURSDAY WHILE
TROUGHING DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WELL AMPLIFIED PATTERN
BRINGS ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. IT IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN HOW FAR WEST THE
RIDGE NUDGES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY...BUT EVEN WITH SOME
WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE
CHILLY. DID SIDE WITH THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN SOUTH CENTRAL
SD...BUT THIS STILL PLACES HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. ELSEWHERE...POOR
MIXING AND THE COOLER AIRMASS WILL HOLD READINGS IN THE
40S...DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

THE RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND...WITH READINGS IMPROVING INTO THE 50S AND LOWER OR 60S.
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ON SATURDAY TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS TO 35 MPH. BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH CLOUDS
INCREASING AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
PACIFIC TROUGH TO OUR WEST.  MODELS SHOW SOME DRASTIC DIFFERENCES IN
THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE TROUGH BEYOND SATURDAY HOWEVER...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. DID NOT STRAY MUCH FROM THE ALLBLEND
SOLUTION...BUT WILL GO WITH ISOLATED POPS ON SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH
SEEMS LIKE BEST TIME FRAME AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

MVFR STRATUS COMING DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW. WINDS GUSTED FOR A FEW
HOURS EARLY THIS EVENING IN HURON AS LEADING EDGE OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION MOVED THROUGH. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE STRATUS...COULD
SEE MOMENTUM ALOFT MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE FOR A FEW HOURS...THEN
SETTLE DOWN IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS PRIOR TO MECHANICAL MIXING.
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...FSD ON THE EDGE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRATUS...AND HAVE IT FORECAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. IN THE
AFTERNOON...MIXING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN VFR CEILINGS. KSUX SHOULD
REMAIN VFR...BUT WILL STILL BE BREEZY DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH
GUSTY WINDS MIXING DOWN FROM ALOFT.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...



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