Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 142331
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
631 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler temperatures and breezy conditions are expected heading into
  the weekend, with highs at or below seasonal normals Sunday.

- High to very high fire danger expected for Saturday and
  Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Light showers continue to linger across NW Iowa as sfc low pressure
slowly pivots eastward, with current observations showing breezy
N/NE winds and temperatures in the upper 40s to 50s. As alluded to
in the previous discussion, dry air in combination with breezy winds
has resulted in the high to very high fire danger across much of our
area today - mainly along and east of I-29. Should see these
conditions continue through sunset, with light rain forecast to
gradually diminish during this time, allowing dry conditions and
lows on either side of freezing to prevail overnight.

Heading into Friday, expect sfc high pressure to build in from the
northwest as an upper level trough axis slides across the region -
thus, resulting in slightly cooler temperatures. Currently have
highs in the low to mid 50s under clearing skies. In regard to
winds, will see direction shift from northerly to westerly by the
afternoon before turning more southwesterly by the evening as a
strong low pressure takes aim at the Great Lakes Region. Sfc cold
front will move in tandem with this feature and dive southeastward
across the region Friday night into Saturday, resulting in cooler
afternoon highs through the weekend. As such, expect temperatures in
the upper 40s to lower 50s Saturday to fall into the mid 30s to
lower 40s by Sunday. Northwesterly winds also look to become quite
breezy after FROPA, with sustained speeds in the 20s and gusts
between 30 to 40 MPH. Similar to the previous forecast package,
latest Grassland Fire Danger advertises High to Very High fire
danger for much of our area, in addition to a couple counties in far
southeastern SD climbing into the Extreme Category. So, while RH may
be a limiting factor at this time, still strongly encourage you to
refrain from any activities that may cause a spark! Otherwise, look
for lows to dip from the 20s on Saturday night into the teens by
Sunday night.

Upper level ridging prevails over the western CONUS heading into the
new week as a pronounced upper level low wobbles over southern
California. Given that the region will be centered in northwest flow
aloft, expect to see dry conditions continue with temperatures
gradually rising back into the 50s to 60s by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 630 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Mostly VFR conditions with occasional MVFR ceilings are expected for
this TAF period mostly due to developing stratus. Taking a look
across the area, mostly cloudy conditions continue for most areas as
a few areas of drizzle to light showers slowly drifts to our
southeast across portions of northwestern IA. As we head into the
overnight hours, developing stratus ahead of a weak shortwave to the
northwest will swing through areas north of I-90 Friday morning
possibly bringing some MVFR ceiling especially across the Hwy-14
corridor and portions of southwestern MN. However, a swift cold
front should clear us of cloud cover from Friday afternoon
onwards. Otherwise, breezy northerly to northeasterly winds will
gradually decrease tonight giving way to more westerly winds
throughout the day on Friday. Marginally breezy conditions will
again be possible by Friday afternoon with gusts between 15-25
mph mostly north of I-90.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SST
AVIATION...Gumbs


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