248
FXUS63 KFSD 160754
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
254 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above normal temperatures will end the week. Moderate to
  high confidence (70-80%) in widespread highs in the 80s on
  Friday. Lower confidence (30-40%) in highs for Saturday,
  depending on timing of cold front.

- A more active southern stream jet is expected next week which
  could bring a better chances for increased shower and
  thunderstorm coverage.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY: Quiet conditions continue to prevail in the
wake of FROPA, with latest observations showing light winds and
temperatures in the upper 40s to mid 50s across the region. Should
see quiet conditions continue today, as sfc high pressure builds
south of our area. As a result, expect winds to remain light out of
the west/northwest, with afternoon highs rising into the 70s. May
even see a few locations along and west of the James River take a
shot at 80 degrees.

Even warmer temperatures are forecast to prevail Friday as breezy
southerly winds enhance WAA across the region. Thus, look for highs
to soar into the 80s as gusts range between 20 to 25 MPH. Lows
during this time will also remain quite mild, as temperatures only
fall into the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Stacked low over Canada advances eastward Saturday, as it`s associated
sfc cold front slides across the Northern Plains. While most of our
area is expected to stay dry, can`t rule out the possibility of
seeing a few light showers along and north of Highway 14 prior to
daybreak Saturday. In regard to temperatures, still expect highs to
rise into the 70s to perhaps the lower 80s on the far eastern
fringes of our CWA. That being said, temperatures will largely
depend on the timing of FROPA - so additional adjustments may still
be needed. Otherwise, expect breezy winds to continue, with
northwesterly gusts between 25 to 35 MPH possible.

SUNDAY: As alluded to in the previous discussion, expect more
organized chances for showers and storms to return Sunday, as a
shortwave over the Rockies ejects northeastward toward the region.
Could see development as early as daybreak, through the better
chances look to occur during the afternoon/evening.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: Unsettled weather looks to continue
heading into the new week as an upper level trough deepens across
the western CONUS. As this features advances eastward, will see a
series of shortwaves impact the region, causing periodic chances for
showers and storms to persist. Ensembles also continue to indicate a
30-70% chance of seeing rainfall greater than or equal to half an
inch on Monday. Otherwise, expect much of the same Tuesday, with
conditions trending drier by Wednesday. Highs during this time look
to remain in the 60s to 70s, with lows generally in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1032 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Showers and isolated thunderstorms will exit the area around
06Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the TAF
period. Winds will be light west/northwesterly through Thursday,
then begin to turn more southwesterly on Thursday night.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SST
AVIATION...JM