Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 161729
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1229 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Quiet weather will continue across the region today with plenty of
sunshine and above normal temperatures. Surface high pressure will
build to our south with surface winds becoming increasingly
southerly. In fact, winds could be a tad breezy this afternoon with
some gusts in the 20-25 mph range possible, particularly east of the
James River. This will be as a weak shortwave moves through this
afternoon and evening but with a dry atmosphere aloft won`t see much
more than a few stray passing mid or high level clouds. As far as
high temperatures, mixing down 925 mb temps in the mid to upper
teens celsius resulted in temperatures very close to the inherited
forecast and thus only made some minor tweaks. Look for highs from
the mid 60s across the east to mid 70s closer to the Missouri River.
Low temperatures Monday night will be around 5 to 10 degrees above
tonight`s readings and thus frost doesn`t look like it will be a
problem.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

The extended forecast continues to advertise spectacular fall
weather with warm temperatures and mostly dry conditions. With zonal
flow aloft and a lack of meaningful moisture, not expecting any
precipitation through Friday. The main story in the Tuesday through
Friday time frame will be the warm temperatures, running 10-15
degrees above their climatological averages. With 925 mb
temperatures running anywhere from the mid teens to even low 20s C,
once again trended upward slightly over populated guidance. NAEFS
guidance even shows temps aloft in the 90th climatological
percentile or higher for Friday.

By Thursday, the flow aloft starts to buckle to the southwest as
ridging builds to our east and troughing to our west as a wave
makes its way into the west coast. It isn`t until Saturday that
this wave and associated frontal boundary ejects into the Plains.
This would bring our next chance of precipitation for the Saturday
afternoon through overnight time frame. Enough instability is
present that could see some thunderstorms as well, particularly
across our eastern half. Front clears the region by Sunday morning
and results in drier, but cooler weather for the second half of
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

VFR conditions through the period. After surface winds decouple
early this evening, a window will exist for low-level wind shear
at KSUX between 02z-07z.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kalin
LONG TERM...Kalin
AVIATION...Chapman



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