Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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378
FXUS63 KFSD 180346
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1046 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

STRONG...COMPACT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE CWA WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT EAST AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY NORTHWEST IOWA WILL END BEFORE 0Z WITH
STRATIFORM RAINFALL OVER MAINLY THE NORTHERN CWA CONTINUING INTO THE
EVENING. ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS LOW PRESSURE WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WENT AHEAD
AND ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH AT TIMES. OTHERWISE
COLDER AIR WILL FLUSH INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND BRING A
DOWNRIGHT CHILLY DAY TO THE AREA MONDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO
THE 30S IN MANY LOCATIONS...EVEN WITH A 20 TO 25 MPH WIND...AND
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE 45 TO 55 DEGREE RANGE.
UNFORTUNATELY WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE 20S MONDAY MORNING AND ONLY
CLIMB TO NEAR 40 BY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. WITH DRY
AIR MASS AND CLEAR SKIES...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DIP BELOW FREEZING
FOR A FEW HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. HAVE WENT
AHEAD AND ISSUED A SMALL FREEZE WARNING FOR HIGH CONFIDENCE AREAS.
WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF THE FREEZE WARNING HAD TO BE EXPANDED
AND/OR A FROST HEADLINE HAD TO BE ISSUED FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A COOL DAY WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW
DOMINATING ACROSS THE REGION.  WITH 850 HPA TEMPS STRUGGLING TO
CLIMB BACK TO ZERO AND EXPANDING CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
REGION...WENT AHEAD AND SCALED BACK HIGHS BY A FEW DEGREES.

CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS ISENTROPIC
LIFT INCREASES AS A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  LITTLE TO
NO INSTABILITY ALONG WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS...WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY....BEFORE DRIER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

HEADED INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE PLAINS LEADING TO ANOTHER WET WEEKEND.  HARD TO TIME AT
THIS POINT...BUT KEPT FAIRLY HIGH GUIDANCE POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WITH GULF CUT OFF TILL FRIDAY NIGHT...SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT
MOISTURE STARVED LIMITING SEVERE POTENTIAL SOME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE THE DOMINANT CATEGORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THEN BY MIDDAY MONDAY AND MONDAY
AFTERNOON...VFR WILL LIKELY PREVAIL EITHER DUE TO A SCATTERING OUT
OF THE CLOUD DECK...OR THE RAISING OF BROKEN CEILINGS INSIDE THE
VFR CATEGORY AS SUCH MAY BE THE CASE IN SOUTHWEST MN. IT IS QUITE
POSSIBLE THOUGH THAT THE THREE TAF SITES AT KHON...KFSD AND KSUX
WILL SCATTER OUT IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MORE CONCERNING ARE THE
NORTHWEST WINDS...EXPECT FREQUENT GUSTS AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS FOR THE
REST OF TONIGHT...DIMINISHING A BIT ON MONDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT MONDAY FOR SDZ040-054>056-060>062-
     065>067.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR SDZ038>040-
     052>060.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT MONDAY FOR SDZ038-039-052-053-
     057>059-063-064.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT MONDAY FOR MNZ071-072-080-081-089-
     090-097-098.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR MNZ071-097.

IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MJ



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