Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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000
FXUS63 KFSD 141738
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1138 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 314 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

In a cold air advection pattern behind yesterdays frontal passage,
will see cooler temperatures for today, albeit it still above normal
for this time of year. Looking at highs around 40 through east
central SD and southwestern MN, to mid 40s along the Missouri River
corridor. Will have increasing northwesterly winds during the
afternoon with mixed layer winds running 25 to 30 kts across the
area.

For tonight, a shortwave drops southward through the western Great
Lakes region, bringing reinforcing cool air to the eastern portions
of our CWA overnight. With dying winds will have lows around 20 from
east central SD into the IA Great Lakes area, to upper 20s over
south central SD. Both the GFS and the NAM are suggesting stratus
dropping through Minnesota overnight, and cannot rule out that this
would scrape our far eastern MN/IA zones after 06Z, though at this
time it appears that much of this low level moisture will remain to
the east of our area.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 314 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

Unseasonably warm weather will be the hallmark of the next 7 days
and beyond.

Large upper level ridge over the West continues to gradually shift
eastward across the Plains Wednesday through Friday, ushering in
much warmer temperatures aloft and a significant warming trend. With
ample sunshine expected each day, decent mixing as surface winds
take on more of a west or southwest component, and little to no
remaining snowpack, temperatures will be well above normal. Highs
will peak in the upper 50s to mid 60s by Friday. With 925mb
temperatures nudging into the lower teens C, Continued the ongoing
trend of warming temperatures above the SuperBlend. As with the past
several nights, nudged up towards the warmest ECMWF guidance,
including lows, which will likely remain above freezing moving into
the end of the week.

Split flow trough arrives Friday night into Saturday morning,
quickly traversing the northern stream, and keeping the energy well
north of the forecast area, while moisture remains bottled up near
the Gulf. Forecast remains dry, although some increased cloud cover
on Saturday and mid level cooling will likely result in slightly
cooler temperatures for highs. Still looking like the 50s remain
likely, which is well above normal. Rebounding ridging will bring
another warm day on Sunday, however more unsettled weather arrives
Sunday night into Monday with a deep trough emerging out of the Four
Corners region. Models in good agreement that precipitation will
spread across the area, but with continued mild readings, rainfall
will be the main concern. Models eke out some very weak elevated
instability, however will leave out any thunder mention for the time
being.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1135 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

VFR conditions will continue through 18z Wednesday. A few wind
gusts in excess of 25 knots will occur through 23z.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Chapman



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