Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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000
FXUS63 KFSD 282039
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
339 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

SHOULD BE A QUIET NIGHT FOR THE FORECAST AREA. HEATING BASED CUMULUS
CLOUDS WILL DISAPPEAR THIS EVENING LEAVING A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT. WE
STILL HAVE A NARROW PLUME OF SMOKE DRIFTING DOWN FROM CENTRAL CANADA
INTO OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES IF ANYONE IS CURIOUS ABOUT THAT.
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL GO LIGHT TONIGHT...HELPING TO PROVIDE LOWS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60. ON MONDAY...ANOTHER WEAK SHORT
WAVE IS DIVING DOWN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WAVE COULD HAVE
AN IMPACT ON OUR ZONES EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 BY AFTERNOON WHERE
SCATTERED POPS ARE WARRANTED. AGREE WITH SPC`S MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER AS THE SOUNDINGS TAKE ON AN INVERTED V SHAPE. MID
LEVELS ARE PRETTY MOIST WITH A DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE IN THE
LOWEST 2.5 KM. SO COULD BE A WIND THREAT WITH MID LEVEL WINDS
AVERAGING 30 TO 40 KNOTS. GOOD MIXING WILL PRODUCE HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 80S...WITH SOME 90 DEGREE READINGS LIKELY AROUND SIOUX CITY AND
PARTS OF OUR WESTERN ZONES.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL PULL EASTWARD
ON MONDAY NIGHT...WITH ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER OUR FAR
SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA/NORTHWESTERN IOWA COMING TO AN END IN THE
EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DRY CONDITIONS INTO LATER ON TUESDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHWARD ON THE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW. TUESDAY HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN MONDAY IN A
EAST/NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S. BY TUESDAY NIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES PICK UP AS THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST WHERE A
DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC BAND WILL RESIDE. MODELS DIFFERING IN THE
TRACK AND TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...AND
AS A RESULT QPF PLACEMENT VARIES AMONG THE MODELS. THE ECMWF AND GEM
ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT...SO LEANED TOWARD THAT SOLUTION WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY SHIFTING INTO THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WITH THE SHOWERS...HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE
MID 70S NORTHEAST...TO MID 80S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE
MORE SUN WILL BE SEEN.

FARTHER INTO THE EXTENDED...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TRACKS INTO THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH REGARD TO
TIMING...BUT GOOD CONSENSUS ON DECENT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY TRENDS
EVEN COOLER WITH HIGHS 70S TO NEAR 80. DRYING THEN LOOKS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES
RECOVERING BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S BY SATURDAY. MODEL
DIFFERENCES GROW BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...BUT CONSENSUS PRODUCES
THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION RETURNING FOR SUNDAY AS A POSSIBLE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

VFR WILL PREVAIL AT KHON...KFSD AND KSUX THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. THIS
AFTERNOON HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE MVFR CEILINGS IN SOUTHWEST MN.
THESE CEILINGS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BACK WESTWARD INTO KFSD.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...MJ



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