Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 280318

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1017 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Late this afternoon a surface warm front, albeit pretty shallow, was
located near the Missouri River at 19z. Temperatures had climbed
into the 70s south of this front with mainly 50s to lower 60s to the
north. With the slow decay of the stratus in some locations, mainly
the Big Sioux Valley into southwest Minnesota, temperatures have
been slow to climb. As we move into the evening and overnight hours
some of this residual moisture in the low levels could allow for
additional patchy fog to develop but not confident enough to include
in forecast. Also working against additional development will be the
gradually increasing southerly gradient. Went ahead and increased
lows a little with the expected south wind and raised wind speeds
around the Buffalo Ridge late tonight into Friday morning and then
late morning and afternoon increased winds across northwest Iowa.
Both area could be pretty breezy tomorrow with gusts of 30 to 40
mph. Temperatures will be mild tonight, in the upper 40s to mid 50s,
while highs on Friday will soar into the 70s across the entire area
with a few lower 80s possible from south central SD towards Sioux

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Upper level ridge flattens out over the weekend as wave moves along
the US/Canadian border.  Shortwave moving out of the southwestern
corner of the US becomes somewhat disorganized as it moves across
the Rockies and moves into the Northern Plains on Saturday.  Could
see some scattered showers, especially in the morning hours across
the northern third of the forecast area.

With surface ridge across the area on Saturday night, winds should
be relatively light allowing temperatures to fall.  Should see
temperatures start to warm on Sunday as increasing return flow
develops throughout the day.  Warming will be most noticeable on
Monday, and while I have raised forecast highs, likely still too
cool compared to mixing. Timing or the front will be critical in
highs.  Winds will also be quite strong, and have nudged guidance
closer to cons_mos output. Appears as though winds could gust in
portions of central SD towards wind advisory criteria, and will need
to keep this in mind in terms of fire weather impacts and potential
wind advisory headlines.

Standard deviation in temperatures increases next week.  Will see
temperatures much cooler on Tuesday behind the front.  On Wednesday
into Thursday, will likely see temperatures rising aloft, but will
have complicating factors especially on Thursday as stratus and or
precip look to be possible as warm front lifts through.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 1017 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

VFR conditions expected through the period. Small chance of seeing
stratus/fog redeveloping across parts of NW IA and SW MN later
tonight, but this should be east and not affect any TAF sites.
Additional possibility of some lower ceilings and visibilities
Friday night along the Missouri River, but this should not develop
until after 06Z. LLWS will set up as southwesterly low level jet
cranks up to 35 to 50 kts tonight above light southeasterly winds at
the surface.




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