Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 040919
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
319 AM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 319 AM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

Shortwave trough swinging through the region this morning will exit
to the east by mid afternoon. Some patchy fog persists east of James
River, but will continue to lift from west to east through mid
morning. Southerly surface winds remain marginally breezy early this
morning, but will gradually shift to the west as the day progresses.
Clouds will likewise begin to scour out in the south and west this
morning, followed by areas east of I29 this afternoon. With the
increasing sunshine and westerly winds, warmed high temperatures a
few more degrees west of I29. Overall looks like a seasonally mild
day with highs in the mid or upper 30s in southwest MN where clouds
hang on longest, ranging to the lower to mid 40s near the Missouri
Valley.

Weak ridging slides east across the region tonight. Return flow will
shift low level winds back to the south. Mid and high clouds will be
on the increase this evening into the early morning hours. Expect
temperatures to drop this evening, then stabilize as the clouds and
southerly winds kick in. Could even see a little warming late
tonight, so went with more of a non diurnal temperature curve
heading towards daybreak Monday. Lows will be in the mid 20s to near
30.


.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 319 AM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

One final warm day on Monday with fairly dense cloud cover 10K feet
and above.  Despite the cloud cover and low sun angle, will still
have some mixing to result in highs in the 40s across much of the
area.  Will be much more of a struggle to warm west of the James
River Valley with fair amount of low level moisture, and have kept
highs in the 30s.

Well advertised cold front works through in the afternoon hours and
temperatures aloft keep dropping throughout much of the week.  With
this continued cold air advection and relatively tight pressure
gradient, have raised winds in the Tuesday through Thursday time
frame.  Have also increased Pops on Thursday as wave drops through
Minnesota with reinforcing cold front.  Very dendritic atmosphere in
the lowest 200-300 mb will result in efficient atmosphere to produce
snow.

Temperatures moderate some on Friday as upper trough over the Great
Lakes region shifts east.  However, intensifying wave is expected to
move out of the Pacific northwest and move into the plains next
weekend. This appears to be the best chance of accumulating snow
across the area for the next week, and accordingly, have the highest
pops. Dendritic layer appears to be fairly deep with this system,
but winds do not appear to be overly strong.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1028 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

IFR fog expected to continue from FSD/SUX into mid-morning. HON
may end up just on the edge of this stratus, but will tempo a
couple hours after midnight. Visibilities shouldn`t fall too far
as winds begin to increase, generally MVFR at most locations.

Stratus will move east by mid-day with lingering upper level
clouds and a southwesterly wind remaining into the evening.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...BT
AVIATION...Dux


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