Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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000
FXUS63 KFSD 192335
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
535 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO HANG TOUGH OVER THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH CLEARING ONLY IN OUR FAR WEST ACROSS BRULE AND
GREGORY COUNTIES. NOT EXPECTING MUCH CHANGE IN THE STRATUS DECK INTO
TOMORROW. COULD SEE A BIT OF EASTWARD PROGRESSION WEST OF THE JAMES
RIVER TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT A MAJORITY OF US WILL STAY LOCKED IN
THE CLOUDS. WILL NEED TO WATCH POTENTIAL FOG FORMATION TONIGHT...AS
SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WE COULD SEE DENSE FOG FORM WEST OF
INTERSTATE 29. SO ADDED FOG INTO THE GRIDS...HITTING IT HARDER TO
THE WEST. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER...NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A
TEMPERATURE DROP TONIGHT AND THUS RAISED LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES. MOST
PLACES WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30...WITH OUR
CLEAR LOCATIONS OUT WEST THE ONLY LOCATIONS ABLE TO RADIATE INTO THE
TEENS. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL ONLY RAISE A FEW DEGREES FROM THE MORNING
LOWS...WITH LOW TO MID 30S EXPECTED.

UPPER WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. DECENT DRY LAYER
SEEN ON MODEL SOUNDINGS CENTERED AROUND 800 MB. SO WHILE WE WILL
PROBABLY SEE SOME VIRGA...THINK IT WILL BE TOUGH FOR ANY PRECIP TO
REACH THE GROUND. BEST CHANCE OF A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLY REACHING
THE GROUND IS BEFORE MIDNIGHT..GENERALLY ALONG OR NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. OTHER QUESTION IS FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL IN THE
STRATUS. DID NOT SEE ANY LAST NIGHT...AND TONIGHTS SOUNDINGS ARE
SIMILAR. SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST. CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE
IT OUT THOUGH...SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT. AT THIS TIME FEEL
THAT EVEN IF WE GOT SOME IT WOULD BE TOO LIGHT TO CAUSE ANY REAL
ISSUES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
AHEAD OF THE INCOMING SYSTEM EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
KEEP MILD BUT CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. THE LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 20S WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY FROM THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

SUNDAY NIGHT THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS. STILL LOOKING LIKE AN EVENT WITH MIXED
PRECIPITATION BUT HOPEFULLY AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN ON THE RELATIVE
LIGHT SIDE. BUT IF THINGS COME TOGETHER LIKE THEY ARE ANTICIPATED TO
ANY TRAVEL ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED. COOLER AIR
WILL MOVE IN THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING A TRANSITION TO ALL
SNOW BEFORE THE SYSTEM EXITS.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES NOT TOO COLD BEHIND THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SO
ANTICIPATING TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST A BIT BELOW NORMAL. STILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE ROCKIES AND EXPECTED
TO EJECT ONTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MODELS NOT VERY
AGREEABLE SO CONFIDENCE NOT REAL HIGH AT THIS POINT BUT
UNFORTUNATELY COULD MAKE FOR SOME POTENTIALLY TRICKY DRIVING
CHRISTMAS EVE THROUGH DECEMBER 26TH. THE 12Z ECMWF IS PARTICULARLY
INTERESTING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 535 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LARGELY STUCK WITH PERSISTENCE FORECAST OF IFR TO LOWER END MVFR...
BUT DID SHOW SOME LOWERING...INTO LIFR RANGE AT SOME LOCATIONS...
FROM MID-LATE EVENING THROUGH MID-LATE MORNING...WITH MARGINAL
IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. PRIMARY
AREA OF LOWER CONFIDENCE IS WHETHER WESTERN EDGE OF STRATUS WORKS
CLOSER TO KHON...AND IF SO WILL DENSE FOG DEVELOP IN ITS PLACE
OVERNIGHT. MODELS LARGELY AGREE ON KEEPING THE STRATUS IN PLACE...
BUT WILL TRY TO MONITOR ON SATELLITE THROUGH THE EVENING NOW THAT
HIGHER CLOUDS ARE MOVING OUT.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...JH


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