Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 200345

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1045 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Upper level ridging will spread across the area tonight as troughing
deepens over the Rockies. This will bring a strengthening southerly
flow which will lead to mild temperatures. Lows tonight will be in
the mid to upper 50s with highs on Friday in the mid to upper 70s.
While winds will support a fire weather concern Friday, afternoon
humidity values will still be in the 40 to 50 percent range so not
anticipating any fire weather headlines. Right now now going to
issue a wind advisory but there will be a chance for near advisory
criteria through Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Friday night into Saturday still the best chance for precipitation
through the period. Broad southwest flow aloft will be in place with
a shortwave expected to eject from the Rockies onto the Plains
Friday night. This should help focus the warm air advection a bit
and when couple with marginal instability bring a chance for showers
and thunderstorms to the area. The best chance should be from about
3 am Saturday to noon Saturday and east of the James River. At this
time not anticipating any severe weather.

Saturday night into Sunday looks quiet as westerly flow develops.
This should allow for good mixing and decent warming. Morning lows
will be in the 30s to lower 40s with highs on Sunday in the 60s.

In the outer periods(Monday through Thursday) looks like a good
potential for some roller coaster temperatures. One fairly strong
dip in the jet stream will exit Tuesday night which will allow a
brief, shortwave ridge to build across the area on Wednesday. This
will be followed by another fairly stout dip in the jet stream with
more cooler temperatures Thursday, likely continuing into Friday. If
this pattern evolves close to what is expected temperatures Tuesday,
Thursday and Friday will below normal and Wednesday will be above
normal. The chances for precipitation will be low through the period
and expect mainly dry conditions.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1042 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

VFR expected through the period. Low level wind shear in the
surface to 1000 foot layer expected overnight tonight followed by
gusty southerly winds at the surface beginning mid morning
Friday. Some low end VFR ceilings are possible beginning Friday
evening as some mid level clouds build in from the south.




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