Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KFSD 230148
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
848 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 847 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

MAIN FORECAST UPDATE TONIGHT WAS JUST ELIMINATING THE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EMBEDDED IN THE SHOWERS. CHECKED THE LATEST
ELEVATED LIFTED INDICES AND CAPE FIELDS AND IT SHOWS INCREASINGLY
STABLE CONDITIONS THIS FAR NORTH. CURRENTLY...THE NEAREST
LIGHTNING IS NEAR THE GOODLAND KS AREA. OBVIOUSLY CANNOT RULE OUT
A ROGUE EMBEDDED THUNDERSHOWER BUT AT THIS TIME FEEL THE CHANCES
ARE TOO REMOTE TO MENTION. FORECAST LOOKS GOOD THOUGH WITH NO
CHANGES NEEDED TO THE OVERALL POP TREND OR LOW TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

FAIRLY STRONG CUT OFF LOW MOVING THROUGH WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON WILL
EJECT ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE AREA. THE
ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THIS LOW PRESSURE IS VERY DRY SO THE CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL WILL LAG BEHIND THE INITIAL PUSH OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
WHILE SOUTH CENTRAL SD WILL SEE THE CHANCE FOR RAIN INCREASE BY
ABOUT 10PM TONIGHT THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR WILL NOT SEE THE
BETTER CHANCES UNTIL LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. INCREASED
POPS A BIT FROM THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS INTERSTATE 29
CORRIDOR ON TUESDAY MORNING AS THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE FINALLY WORKS
INTO THE AREA. ALSO INCREASE JUST A BIT IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WHERE
THE FORCING COULD LINGER FOR AWHILE INTO THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY
NOT ALL THAT GREAT BUT WILL LIKELY HEAR A FEW RUMBLES FROM TIME TO
TIME. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILD IN CENTRAL SD...A LITTLE COOLER EAST
OF INTERSTATE 29 EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 WHERE THE WINDS ARE SLOWER TO
INCREASE. WILL SHOOT FOR NEAR 50 IN NORTHWEST IA TO THE UPPER 50S IN
CENTRAL SD. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW SLOWLY WORKS EAST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 60S. HIGHS AROUND 70 WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS MARSHALL
MINNESOTA WHERE CLOUDS AND RAINFALL WILL BE SLOWEST TO REACH AND
ALSO CENTRAL SD WHERE CLOUDS MAY BREAK UP A BIT IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE RAINFALL SHIFTS EAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES WITH
DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON A 40K LOW LEVEL JET. INSTABILITY IS
RATHER MEAGER...SO LOOKING AT MAINLY SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE IN A
BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW...WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY LATER ON
WEDNESDAY...SO THE GENERAL TREND WILL FOR ANY LINGERING SHOWERS EAST
OF INTERSTATE 29 IN THE MORNING TO DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE
WARMER ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND WARMING
THERMAL PROFILES...SO LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S EAST TO NEAR
80 THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE WESTERN JAMES RIVER
VALLEY.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY PERIOD...WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS
WILL PLAY OUT TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH LOWS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 50S. MODELS THEN HINT AT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE WESTERN U.S. BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK...WHICH COULD POSSIBLY BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

SLOW MOVING SHORT WAVE WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH
06Z...AND SHOWERS SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
HEAVY...BUT MAY HAVE AN OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
DAY ON TUESDAY.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.