Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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000
FXUS63 KFSD 290347
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1047 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

LARGE SWATH OF LOW TO MID LEVEL STRATUS CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SPINS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. AS THIS LOW DRIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD...THE CLOUD DECK WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE FORECAST AREA
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL ALSO
BE ON THE DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON...DROPPING TO AROUND 10 MPH
AFTER SUNSET. THE COOL AND DRY AIRMASS SETTLES INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT...WHICH COMBINED WITH DECREASING WINDS LATE AND CLEARING
SKIES WILL LEAD TO OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW FREEZING FOR NEARLY THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 20S TO
NEAR 30.

MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ONCE MORE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. SUNNY SKIES GIVE WAY TO PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON...BY DRY WEATHER SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY. RETURN FLOW WILL SHIFT THE LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO SOUTHERLY...BUT SPEEDS REMAIN LESS THAN 10
MPH. HIGHS WILL WARMER THAN TODAY...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
AVERAGES IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT A SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON A
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW...BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO OUR EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA ZONES
OVERNIGHT WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDES. A SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN
TONIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40.

IN SPITE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM...ENHANCED
MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED WARMING ON THURSDAY. IT WILL BE
BREEZY IN A TIGHTENING GRADIENT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S. STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL WORK INTO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH LOWS ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE
20S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL...TOPPING OUT LOWER 40S EAST TO UPPER 40S JAMES RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH THE MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR.

THE COOL SPELL WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND A
STRONG SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW DEVELOPING BEHIND EXITING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND...MOST REALIZED ON SUNDAY WHEN HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THEN SLIDES EASTWARD
FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK...WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRINGING
SHOWERS INTO OUR SOUTHEAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 30/06Z. CEILINGS 3.5K TO 5K FEET WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE OVER THE AREA THROUGH 29/15Z.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...



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