Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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000
FXUS63 KFSD 180316
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1016 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED IN THE SHORT TERM PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST.  TONIGHT...WE WILL AGAIN BE DEALING WITH STRATUS
TRYING TO FILTER BACK SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE REGION.  HAVE OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE 30S IN MOST AREAS...BUT COULD ENVISION THESE BEING SLIGHTLY
HIGHER WITH IMPACTS FROM STRATUS.  HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE WARMER
NAM GUIDANCE IN THE NE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL ON SATURDAY...AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD
QUICKLY ADVECT EAST AS THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE MORNING.  INCREASING SUNSHINE SHOULD PROPEL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH READINGS NEAR
60S IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

MAINLY WARM...DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EXTENDED.  ON SUNDAY...WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  MODELS ARE STARTING TO HIT
THAT THERE COULD BE STRATUS THAT FILTERS INTO THE EAST BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND INCREASED SKY COVER BUT WAS PRETTY LIMITED IN TERMS OF
AREAL COVERAGE FOR NOW.  GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF WITH
THIS SIGNAL...BUT BOTH SUGGEST SOME CLOUD COVER.

THEREAFTER...MONDAY LOOKS LIKE A BEAUTIFUL FALL DAY WITH A SURFACE
RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA.  THIS WILL PROMOTE RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS...AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

THE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY...HOWEVER...IT WILL BE MUCH MORE WINDY AS THE GRADIENT
INCREASES.  WITH NEAR 30 KNOTS OF FLOW FORECAST BY 00Z WED AT 925
HPA...INCREASED WINDS OVER GUIDANCE BUT WASN/T ABLE TO GO AS HIGH AS
I WOULD LIKE.  FUTURE SHIFTS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO INCREASE WINDS
BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.  BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF A TROUGH THAT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.  BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR WHAT APPEARS TO BE A FAIRLY
MOISTURE STARVED SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH OF THE AREA...SO ONLY HAVE
CHANCE POPS WITH FEATURE.

PATTERN APPEARS TO REVERT TO A WARM...DRY AND MILD PATTERN LATE NEXT
WEEK...AND HAVE SIDED WITH WARMER GUIDANCE TEMPS TOWARDS DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1015 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

MVFR STRATUS CONTINUES TO EXPAND SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT
THIS TO LINGER INTO TOMORROW MORNING. AS WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY
TOMORROW THE STRATUS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR AT THE TAF SITES BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHENARD


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