Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 050910
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
310 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 307 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2017

Colder temperatures and occasional light snow chances will be the
main story through the rest of the week.

The low pressure system that brought our abrupt arrival into winter
continues to push into the Great Lakes region. While northwest winds
have decreased some, they remain elevated with gusts to 30 mph.
These breezy to gusty northwest winds will continue through the day
and into Tuesday night. A vort lobe and fractured mid level
frontogensis could bring some additional light snow chances by late
afternoon into the overnight hours. Nailing down the exact placement
and extent of this snowfall will be tricky with the parallel
movement to the banded orientation. Regardless, amounts currently
look light (likely less than an inch) with most favored between
Sioux Falls and Chamberlain.

High temperatures will remain below the freezing mark for most
locations with wind chills in the single digits or colder. Overnight
lows Tuesday night will run in the mid teens to mid 20s with perhaps
some lower teens across SW Minnesota closer to the upper level cold
pool.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 307 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2017

No big changes in the extended forecast with a continuation of
north/northwest flow aloft allowing for reinforcing pieces of cold
air. Highs will remain in the 20s to low 30s thru the rest of the
work week with lows in the teens or perhaps a tad colder Wednesday
night. Lowered temperatures a degree or two in areas that recieved
some of the better snow cover earlier today. Could also see spotty
flurries as the dendritic layer occasional saturates. Some
moderation in temperatures is possible by the weekend with the upper
trough pulling east and a building ridge to the west. Confidence in
these details still remains very low though with GEFS members
running nearly a 30 degree spread in temperatures and the ECMWF
hinting at denting the ridge via a shortwave dropping down in the NW
flow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1027 PM CST Mon Dec 4 2017

Northwest winds will continue to slowly decrease a bit through the
night, though remain gusty through Tuesday. VFR conditions will
dominate through the period, though clouds may lower into the MVFR
category by Tuesday evening.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kalin
LONG TERM...Kalin
AVIATION...JM



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