Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 141009
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
409 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

SYSTEM COMING THROUGH WITH A LOT LESS OOMPH THAN WAS EXPECTED. SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN 2 INCHES IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH
SOME POTENTIALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CLOSER TO HIGHWAY 14 WHEN THE SNOW
ENDS. SUSPECT THAT THE SNOW WILL COME TO A QUICK END FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SOUTH WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM
ABOUT 15 TO 30 MPH TO 10 TO 15 MPH BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
LIKELY ALLOW SOME BLOWING SNOW TO CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING SO WHILE
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY NOT BE NEEDED WANT TO SEE WHAT
EFFECTS THE NEW SNOW HAS WITH THE STRONG WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 29. IF THE EFFECTS REMAIN FAIRLY MINIMAL MAY GO AHEAD AND
CANCEL OR AT LEAST SHRINK THE ADVISORY. AS THE SNOW ENDS CLOUDS WILL
NOT BE QUICK TO DIMINISH SO EXPECTING FAIRLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS MOST
LOCATIONS. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK SO LOOKING AT HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 TO NEAR 40
IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE A LITTLE SUN AND WARMER LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES SUPPORT A DECENT DAY.

BY TONIGHT ANOTHER JET MAX WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS AND WILL BRING A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR EITHER LIGHT SNOW OR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO THE MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR. FOR NOW ONLY
GOING WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE AS FORCING AND MOISTURE NOT REAL
IMPRESSIVE. OTHERWISE WITH THE LESS COLD ATMOSPHERE AND EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER LOWS WILL BE MILD...THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S MANY
LOCATIONS WITH UPPER 20S NEAR GREGORY COUNTY.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

ON MONDAY LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS TAKE ON A WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY
COMPONENT BY AFTERNOON...AND IN WARMING THERMAL PROFILES IT WILL BE
A MILDER DAY WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT LOWER 30S EAST TO MID 40S
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. BY MONDAY EVENING A SHORTWAVE
WILL DROP INTO THE REGION ON A NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW AS A
SURFACE TROUGH SLIDES INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WITH
THAT...WILL HAVE PRECIPITATION DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...AND WITH
ALL MODELS PORTRAYING A WARM LAYER ALOFT IT LOOKS LIKE MIXED
PRECIPITATION IS GOING TO BE A POSSIBILITY INITIALLY...BEFORE COLDER
AIR SURGES IN LATER IN THE NIGHT. IT IS A TRICKY SITUATION DEPENDENT
ON WHAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES DO...WITH SOME INDICATION THAT SURFACE
TEMPS MAY FALL IN THE EARLY EVENING THEN RISE FOR A TIME LATER IN
THE EVENING AS WINDS PICK UP. MODEL QPF AMOUNTS ARE RUNNING BETWEEN
A TENTH TO 2 TENTHS OF LIQUID...SO WOULD BE SOMEWHAT CONCERNING IF
SOME OF THIS WERE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN. WILL BE SOMETHING TO
WATCH FOR IN THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS.

SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...LEADING TO
HIGHS UPPER 20S TO MID 30S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME 40S
THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL SD ZONES. MODELS SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME LIGHT SNOW MAINLY IN OUR NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION.

THE MAIN STORY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO BE RATHER
SIGNIFICANT WARMING AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS. THIS WOULD PLAY OUT TO HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

VFR CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR CEILINGS/MVFR-IFR VISIBILITY AFTER 21Z
AS SNOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING
25-30KT COULD RESULT IN PERIODS OF LIFR VISIBILITY IN SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW 00Z-12Z. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR VISIBILITY IS
EXPECTED WEST TO EAST AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...BUT ANTICIPATE MVFR
CEILINGS PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR SDZ040-055-056-
     061-062-066-067.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR SDZ038-
     039-052>054-057>060.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ071-072-080-
     081-089-090-097-098.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR IAZ001>003-
     012>014-021-022.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JH


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