Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 011604
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1104 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1056 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

PRIMARY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO REMOVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 59 IN MN
AND IA. THE WEAK WAVE THAT BROUGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS TO CENTRAL SD
WILL MOVE INTO IA AND MN BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND TOWARD I35 BY
EARLY EVENING. BEHIND THIS WAVE IT IS A LITTLE DRIER ABOVE THE
SURFACE. THIS WILL LIMIT CU DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. DID KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE THERE IS STILL SOME ACCAS
ON SATELLITE AS LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 7 C/KM.

WITH THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS DID LOWER DEW POINTS A BIT THIS
AFTERNOON AND DECREASE SKY COVER IN MOST AREAS. HIGHS EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

CONDITIONS TODAY SHOULD PLAY OUT SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...AND LEAD TO
ANOTHER PLEASANT SUMMER DAY ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER SUBTLE MID
LEVEL WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A SECOND EVEN WEAKER FEATURE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALREADY SEEING SOME VERY ISOLATED HIGH BASED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL SD...WHICH SHOULD REMAIN
LARGELY TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WHILE SOME MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE VERY BRIEFLY REDEVELOPS. LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
CUMULUS FIELD INCREASES IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY AND THE SECOND WAVE
MATERIALIZES...EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS TO ONCE AGAIN FORM IN THE
AFTERNOON. BEST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE IN OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
COUNTIES WHERE A LITTLE MID LEVEL INSTABILITY EXITS AND THE WEAK
WAVE WILL TRACK...HOWEVER THE POOR SUPPORT AND MOISTURE WILL LIMIT
COVERAGE TO ISOLATED AT BEST. LIKE YESTERDAY...AREAS UNDER THESE
SHOWERS WILL SEE LESS THAN A TENTH...HOWEVER THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE DRY. ADDITIONALLY...LIGHT WINDS...PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN STORY WITH
HIGHS REACHING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN THE 80S.

SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END IN THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
THE HEAT OF THE DAY AND DECREASED CUMULUS FIELD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM A BIT ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS A DEGREE
OR TWO WARMER...IN THE LOWER 80S EAST TO UPPER 80S THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THINK IT WILL REMAIN DRY DURING THE
DAY...THOUGH COULD SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN OUR EAST
ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION ON A NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW AND A WEAK BOUNDARY SLIDING THROUGH THE AREA. THE BOUNDARY SAGS
INTO OUR SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN COULD SEE SOME
REDEVELOPMENT IN OUR FAR EAST IN THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH AGAIN WITH
WEAK FORCING WOULD BE PRETTY ISOLATED. SUNDAYS HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR
TO SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH POSSIBLY TOUCHING 90 DEGREES THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

FOR NEXT WEEK...MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE TEMPERATURES
AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRYING TO NUDGE
EASTWARD...THOUGH BEING HELD BACK BY TROUGHING IN THE EASTERN PART
OF THE NATION. MODELS NOW TRENDING TOWARD A DRIER MONDAY THEN
PREVIOUSLY...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTION OCCURRING ON TUESDAY
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND A MEANDERING BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE AREA. CONVECTION CHANCES THEN INCREASE FOR MIDWEEK AS A
MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM CRASHES THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN DROP BACK TO
JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

SOME SHALLOW AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING IN LOW
LYING AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 29. THIS FOG IS
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY LIFT THIS MORNING BY AROUND 1230Z OR
13Z...INCLUDING THE KSUX AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TODAY AND
WHILE SOME MID LEVEL CUMULUS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...ONLY VERY ISOLATED -SHRA OR -TSRA IS EXPECTED. WITH THE
LOW PROBABILTY...DID NOT MENTION AT THE TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SCHUMACHER
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...






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