Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43
000
FXUS63 KGID 241113
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
613 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain and freezing rain (and a few rumbles of thunder)
  continue to slide across the area this morning. Areas near and
  north of Highway 92 could see slick roads this morning.

- Strong south/southeasterly winds are expected today,
  especially across portions of Kansas. Gusts of 40-50 MPH are
  likely in these areas.

- Severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and
  evening, the main risk area southwest of a line from Cambridge
  to Beloit, and the main timeframe for severe is 4pm to
  midnight.

- Rain gradually changes to snow (possibly a brief wintry mix)
  late tonight into Monday.

- Strong northwest winds (gusts to 50 MPH) overspread the area
  through Monday. Blizzard conditions are expected for some
  locations through Monday night.

- Snow ends by Tuesday morning. After a cold day on Tuesday,
  temperatures trend warmer through the rest of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 417 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Currently, our first round of rain showers is moving across the
forecast area. Temperatures north of I-80 are near to below
freezing, but upstream we`ve seen temperatures increase by a few
degrees as precipitation moves in. That said, near term models
still favor freezing rain occurring near and north of Highway
92. Most (if not all) of the rain will move out by 7am, and any
ice should melt off by mid morning. If this plays out as
expected, the advisory will probably be cancelled early.

Most of the area will see a "lull" in precipitation this
morning into the early afternoon, but focus will then shift to
the potential for severe storms this afternoon. Moisture will
continue to surge northward ahead of a deepening surface low
over eastern CO, eventually resulting MLCAPE values in excess of
1000 J/kg by mid to late afternoon in southwest portions of the
area. This will be coupled with deep-layer shear on the order
of 20-40kts. These parameters are not super impressive, but
strong lift should help overcome some of these deficiencies. The
primary threats will be hail and isolated damaging wind. An
isolated/brief tornado cannot be completely ruled out
(especially with low LCLs), but the better potential for this
appears to be to our south with a better overlap of CAPE/shear.

Storm intensity should trend downward by late evening, but then
we will start seeing precipitation change from rain to snow as
colder air pushes in from the northwest. This will occur as
northwest winds continue to increase, with gusts of 45 to 55
MPH. Through Monday morning, the heaviest snow is favored to
occur along our northwestern periphery, with a pretty sharp
cutoff on the east side. Therefore, only a few counties (Valley,
Sherman, Dawson, Gosper) were put in the Blizzard Warning.

There is fairly high confidence that strong winds continue
overspread the entire area through Monday, but there is much
less certainty on the coverage and intensity of snowfall during
the day on Monday. Therefore, a Winter Storm Watch was
maintained/expanded in these areas. After the primary surface
low weakens, many models show another low deepening, potentially
producing another band of snow across. If this does occur,
blizzard conditions would be possible over a larger portion of
the area.

Precipitation winds down late Monday night into Tuesday
morning. Subzero wind chills appear likely for much of Nebraska
to start the day on Tuesday. Some blowing snow could still
persist through midday Tuesday, but winds will gradually subside
through the afternoon.

Beyond Tuesday, things are looking much quieter (at least for a
while). The NBM has us dry from Tuesday through Saturday, with
temperatures returning to the 60s by Thursday. There are hints
at a system for the end of March, but confidence in any details
is extremely low.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 602 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

IFR ceilings should be moving into the TAF sites shortly. Models
lift ceilings this afternoon only to bring them back down after
sunset. Expect SHRA today, maybe an isolated T-storm, but didn`t
have enough confidence to put a mention in the TAF for one.
Tomorrow morning near the end of the TAF period expecting change
over from -SHRA to -FZRA to -SN. Confidence isn`t high with this
set of TAFs as spring storms tend to be a little more dynamic
and a few miles can mean all the difference with forecasting the
different criteria.

-SN. It looks like the change over to
-SN will be after 12z which is after this TAF period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning
     for NEZ040-047-061-062-073>075-082>084.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for
     NEZ039>041-046>049.
     Blizzard Warning from 1 AM Monday to 7 AM CDT Tuesday for
     NEZ039-046-060-072.
KS...Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning
     for KSZ005.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Beda


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.