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000
FXUS63 KGID 091016
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
516 AM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The vast majority of our coverage area (CWA) will likely
  remain bone dry until at least Monday-Monday night, meaning
  that the majority of this 7-day forecast is highlighted by
  seasonably mild to warm temperatures, breezy to windy
  conditions and associated fire weather concerns.

- With fire weather the paramount weather hazard concern through
  most of the next week, a separate FIRE WEATHER section is
  included below (and contains all further discussion of this
  topic).

- Although not truly calm (especially in our Nebraska zones),
  today will certainly feature the overall-lightest winds of the
  week and is a day to enjoy (even gusts mainly 20 MPH or less).

- Wednesday afternoon-early evening could feature some very
  spotty sprinkles/showers, but these are very low chances at
  any given point (10-20%) and a return of stronger
  northwesterly winds will be the more notable feature.

- Thursday still looks like the overall-windiest day of the week
  (sustained speeds at least 25-30 MPH/gusts 35-45
  MPH...probably strongest north and east.

- This weekend still looks like our first 80+ degree weather of
  the year for most of our CWA, with low-mid 80s common.

- Although our official forecast already contains some lower-end
  thunderstorm chances for Monday afternoon, higher/more
  widespread chances are more favored to arrive Monday evening-
  overnight. Although still early and subject to change, this
  system currently looks to pack a punch in terms of at least
  very strong gradient winds Mon-Tues, and perhaps also carry a
  severe thunderstorm threat.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 514 AM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

-- PRIMARY CHANGES TO THIS 7-DAY FORECAST PACKAGE VERSUS THE
 PREVIOUS ONE (issued Mon afternoon):

- Honestly nothing noteworthy to speak of, as overall models
  have remained very consistent with their overall depiction of
  not only key upper air/surface features, but also low-level
  thermal profiles (for example the 00Z runs of "old school" MEX
  and ECX guidance products depict very similar temperatures
  through the next 7 days).


-- 7-DAY FORECAST OVERVIEW/HIGHLIGHTS (chronological order, but
 with finer details primarily geared to the first 48 hours
 through Wednesday night):

- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 430 AM:
April nights don`t get much quieter than this around here. Quite
simply, it`s been a tranquil and seasonably chilly night
(probably headed toward some early-AM frost development various
places...but please note we are still probably at least 10 days
away from starting to issue formal Advisories for that sort of
thing). In the big picture of the mid-upper levels, water vapor
satellite imagery and short term model data confirm broad
zonal/westerly flow over the Central Plains, with our area well-
removed from the slowly departing low over the northern Great
Lakes, and also well northeast of a potent upper low/vort max
centered over the AZ/MX border (and will continue to drive a
fairly substantial severe storm threat over TX and the Gulf
Coast states these next few days). At the surface, broad high
pressure (around 1018 millibars) is centered over the NE/CO/KS
border region, with early morning breezes averaging no more
than 10 MPH from mainly some variance of a westerly direction.
The combo of light winds and almost totally clear skies is
promoting an efficient radiational cooling night, with low temps
on track to bottom out 30-35 degrees most places.

- TODAY:
Above all else, today is clearly the overall-lightest wind day
of the week, and will be made even more enjoyable by plentiful
sun and seasonably-mild temps (get out and enjoy!). To be sure,
it will NOT BE truly calm, as especially this afternoon will
feature sustained (mainly westerly) speeds 10-15 MPH and
occasional gusts to around 20 MPH (overall-strongest north of
I-80), but compared to lately certainly noticeably lighter.
Actually, our KS zones will enjoy the overall-lightest winds,
as a surface high pressure axis sliding east through that area
will likely keep even gusts under 15 MPH and bring a bit more
variability to wind direction compared to farther north. Skies
today will be sunny/mostly sunny overall, although especially
our southern zones will some degree of incoming high cirrus, and
our northern zones could see some scattered, high-based fair
weather cumulus this afternoon. Made very little change to high
temps, which will be at least a few degrees warmer (and more
uniform across our CWA) compared to yesterday, with most areas
aimed 67-69 degrees.

- THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT:
Another dry/uneventful night, as the northern fringes of precip
associated with the powerful Southern Plains system remains at
least 100-150 miles south of our southern-most KS zones. Breezes
overnight will average no more than 5-10 MPH again, with
direction varying somewhat with time from southerly to more
west-northwesterly. Especially later in the night, some
increasing mid-high level clouds will move in from the west, but
overall the night mostly clear to partly cloudy at most.
Although could foresee a few areas dipping a bit colder than
expected (if skies remain clear), we are calling for most places
to hold up 5-7 degrees warmer than this morning...most places
aimed 38-41.

- WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-EARLY EVENING:
While MOST places will surely remain dry, have
continued/expanded low-end (10-20%) chances for high-based,
isolated sprinkles/rain showers during the afternoon into early
evening, as a shortwave trough drops into our region out of the
north- northwest. Should this spotty precip develop, probably
cannot rule out a rogue lightning strike in a weakly-unstable
airmass, but kept out a formal thunder mention for now. The more
notable feature will be an uptick in north-northwesterly winds
especially during the afternoon, with a passing front kicking up
sustained speeds 15-25 MPH/gusts 25-30+ MPH. High temps should
be similar to today, with most of the CWA currently aimed 66-71
(coolest northwest/warmest southeast).

- WEDNESDAY OVERNIGHT:
Any possible sprinkles/light showers should depart our southeast
zones by around/shortly after sunset, with the remainder of the
night dry and continued breezy/windy (gusts 25-35 MPH). Low
temps are aimed similar to Tues night...mid 30s west to upper
30s-low 40s east.

- THURSDAY:
Very high confidence that this will be the overall-windiest and
overall-coolest (albeit still seasonable) day of the week. As
the northern stream wave slides just to our east and starts to
merge/phase with the southern U.S. system, we`ll be in a tight
surface pressure gradient and in a good setup for deep mixing.
The net result will be sustained north-northwest winds 25-35
MPH/gusts 35-45 MPH (overall-strongest in our northeast half).
Although fire weather is the main concern (see below), these
winds speeds alone are worthy of mention in our Hazardous
Weather Outlook (HWOGID). High temps 5-10 degrees cooler than
Wednesday (most places a few degrees either side of 60). Winds
drop off considerably overnight, fostering a seasonably-cool
night with lows mainly low-mid 30s.

- FRIDAY:
The day start with light winds in a surface ridge axis, but
winds will flip around to southerly and start to increase in the
afternoon (gusts 20+ MPH likely). This will start ushering in
warmer air, with highs roughly 10 degrees warmer than Thursday
(mainly upper 60s-lower 70s).

- SATURDAY-SUNDAY:
The ECMWF/GFS are both in good agreement in a warm and PROBABLY
dry weekend as upper ridging prevails aloft as we remain well-
downstream from the next powerful low arriving onshore the
Pacific Coast. That being said, there is probably a non-zero
chance for a spotty shower mainly Sat/Sat night given hints of a
very weak wave embedded in the flow (something to watch in case
our going dry forecast gets "ruined"). Fore sure though, the
main story will be the warm-up, with most of our CWA seeing its
first 80+ degree readings of the year (both days aimed low-mid
80s). Although confidence is low in occurrence, our northeast
zones do contain some slight chances for showers late Sunday
night.

- MONDAY-MON NIGHT:
Confidence in finer details is of course inherently low at this
time range, but our next system certainly bears watching for
potentially impactful weather. For what it`s worth, the
ECMWF/GFS remain in overall-good agreement with both each other
and their previous/recent runs in ejecting a powerful,
negatively tilted upper low across the Rockies Monday daytime,
and into our region Monday night. Should this forecast remain on
track, strengthening gradient winds are given, possibly very
strong including into Tuesday (initially out of the south Mon-
Mon night though). Assuming dewpoints climb into the 50s ahead
of this system, a severe storm threat could also be a concern
mainly Monday night, and SPC has already nicked the extreme
southwestern edges of our CWA with a fairly rare Day 7 risk area
(15% chance of severe).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1246 AM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

- General overview for KGRI/KEAR:
This is honestly about as "quiet" of a TAF period you`ll find
around here. Extremely high confidence in VFR ceiling/visibility
and precip-free...with perhaps some limited/shallow afternoon
cumulus development based around 9K ft.

Winds will be far the lightest they`ve been in several days.
Sustained speeds will largely prevail at-or-below 10KT, with
even afternoon gusts peaking only around 16KT. Direction
generally westerly through most of the period, but trending more
variable late in the period Tuesday evening (probably more
southerly if anything).

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 514 AM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

- BASIC OVERVIEW OF NEXT SEVERAL DAYS:
With a seasonably-warm, dry, and often-breezy to sometimes-windy
weather pattern remaining in place until at least Monday
afternoon-night (when our next chance for perhaps decent rain
enters the picture), fire weather is certainly our primary
weather hazard concern(despite the fact that a modest spring
green- up is underway). At least through Sunday, the day of
least concern is today (lightest winds of the week), while the
days of greatest concern are Thursday for sure (worst combo of
strong winds/low relative humidity, along to perhaps a somewhat
lesser degree Wednesday and possibly Saturday (warmest day of
the year so far most of our area). Will outline the basics of
each of the next 5 days below.

- THIS AFTERNOON:
While technically not a zero fire weather threat given that
especially a few of our counties mainly along/north of I-80
could see a few hours of "sneaky wind gusts around 20 MPH as
relative humidity (RH) drops to around 25 percent, the overall
light-ish winds clearly make this the least-concerning fire
weather day of the next several (and have actually opted against
mentioning a marginal near-critical threat in our Hazardous
Weather Outlook/HWOGID.

- WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON:
At least for now, our combined wind/RH thresholds only meet
near-critical thresholds, but to a much greater degree than
today, meaning this bears close watching to make sure it doesn`t
trend worse. Actually RH is currently the main limiting factor
to potentially critical conditions, as RH is expected to bottom
out closer to 25% versus 20%. The wind component is of concern,
as north-northwesterly gusts of at least 25-30 MPH are likely
behind a passing cold front (and perhaps enhanced locally by
spotty, high-based showers).

- THURSDAY AFTERNOON:
This continues to be our day of most fire weather concern, as
both RH/wind look to reach outright-critical thresholds across
at least the vast majority of our CWA, and both parameters worse
versus Wednesday. More specifically, Thursday will feature the
strongest winds of the week (sustained at least 25-30 MPH/gusts
35-45 MPH). While winds could ease a bit by mid-late afternoon,
they should still easily gust at/above the 25+ MPH critical
threshold, as RH falls to 15-20% most areas. It was considered a
bit early for a formal Fire Weather Watch on this shift, but IF
current forecast trends hold, one is probable over the next few
days.

- FRIDAY AFTERNOON:
This currently looks like a solid near-critical, as winds flip
around to southerly with gusts at least 20-25 MPH, and RH
currently aimed mainly 20-25 percent.

- SATURDAY AFTERNOON:
Although far enough out in time that confidence in the finer
details is still lacking, this is still a day that bears
watching despite perhaps not looking QUITE as concerning as it
did 24 hours ago. The main question mark is southerly wind
speeds, which don`t appear quite as strong as before, but still
probably at least 20-25 MPH as RH drops mainly into the 15-25%
range. Although there is fairly high confidence that temps will
reach at least low 80s (warmest day of year so far most places)
which will help drive down RH, it could be counter-acted to
some degree by slowly rising dewpoints.

-- NOTE:
NWS Hastings typically defines CRITICAL fire weather as the
overlap of BOTH 20-percent-or-lower RH and sustained winds/gusts of
20+ MPH/25+ MPH (for 3+ hour duration).

NWS Hastings typically defines NEAR-CRITICAL fire weather as the
overlap of BOTH 25-percent-or-lower RH and sustained winds/gusts
15+MPH/20+ MPH.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pfannkuch
AVIATION...Pfannkuch
FIRE WEATHER...Pfannkuch