Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43
000
FXUS65 KGJT 151145
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
545 AM MDT Fri Mar 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty southeast winds will bring 50 mph gusts to southeast
  Utah and southwest Colorado today.

- A slow moving cutoff low continues to push moisture into the
  region today and Saturday, producing 1 to 2 feet of additional
  snowfall for our southern mountains and the high country above
  7000 feet in southeast Utah.

- Models continue to struggle with a solution in the evolution
  and eventual departure of the cutoff low. Current expectations
  are for light snowfall to continue into the work week over our
  mountains down south and perhaps spread northward later in the
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 402 AM MDT Fri Mar 15 2024

The slow crawling cutoff low spinning over southern California has
been pushing a rich batch of Pacific moisture across the Four
Corners and into western Colorado and eastern Utah this morning.
Measurable precipitation has been falling around Blanding, Cortez,
Durango, and Pagosa Springs. The warm and wet conditions have
produced some wet, melting snow at Durango and mostly rain elsewhere
in the lower elevations. The strong easterly winds up north have
shifted to more northeast and dried things out a bit, which put an
end to our Winter Storm Warning for the eastern Uintas overnight.
Winter highlights continue for the mountains down south, as well as
a Wind Advisory today for southeast Utah and southwest Colorado,
where a tightening pressure gradient today will bring southerly
gusty winds to 50 mph across the area. The low will wobble eastward
slightly over the next 24 hours, but persistent moisture and a
series of vort lobes will mean repeated rounds of valley rains and
mountain snow. Is anyone tired of this cloudy mess? Winter
highlights are currently set to expire Saturday morning, but
additional snowfall Saturday afternoon could spell out an extension
of the Colorado mountain zone products, as the low really doesn`t
budge much from its location. The caveat here will be how much we
warm on Saturday in the continued warm air advection in the warm
sector of the low. Present thinking is that we will melt out a lot
of the snow that falls Saturday and thereby negate the need for
continuing winter highlights. Cloud cover will persist and afternoon
highs will sit below climatology, especially where rain/snow cooled
air knocks down the mercury. Overnight lows will mostly remain on
the warm side in the high dewpoint regime this low continues to
host. One exception could be northwest Colorado and the Uinta Basin,
where cloud cover could abate enough Saturday night to allow
temperatures to radiate out a bit more efficiently.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 402 AM MDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Model consensus is that on Sunday the closed low pressure will still
be stalled out over Arizona and or New Mexico. As long as that
system sticks around surges of moisture and periods of lift will
result scattered showers. This precipitation will be focused across
the southern half of the forecast area, but not totally restricted.
Temperatures are expected to remain steady each day therefore snow
levels will follow a diurnal trend. If showers occur overnight then
accumulating snow could reach some of the lower valleys. Snow during
the day will really only impact the mountains. The San Juans and
surrounding areas will have the best chances for precip until that
low crosses the Divide. It has been a struggle for the models since
the beginning so it is hard to determine when this low pressure
finally kicks out of the Desert Southwest. This means confidence in
timing is very low attm. Models are signaling that the low might
finally exit the region on Thursday. Unfortunately, they track the
system over our forecast, which means chances for precip increase
further north. It is also really difficult to pin down how much
precip will amount to across the south into next week. We might have
to take this a few days at a time.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 539 AM MDT Fri Mar 15 2024

A stalled low pressure center over Southern California will
continue to deliver mountain snow and valley rain to southeast
Utah and southwest Colorado through the period. This will lead
to intermittent ILS breakpoint conditions at terminals.
Conditions north of I-70 will remain much more scattered in
nature, with a few terrain based showers possible, but mostly
just mid level ceilings. Winds are expected to pick up around
the Four Corners today with gusts to 50 mph possible.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MDT Saturday for COZ017-018.
     Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM MDT Saturday for COZ019.
     Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for COZ021.
UT...Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM MDT Saturday for UTZ028.
     Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for UTZ022.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LTB
LONG TERM...KJS
AVIATION...TGJT


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.