Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 290520
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1120 PM MDT Thu Mar 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold front will move into northern portions of the forecast
  area overnight. The front will stall

- Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for the northern
  and central mountains and Flat Tops for 6 to 10 inches of new
  snow through Saturday morning.

- Unsettled weather continues through the weekend with more snow
  and rain expected across the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 208 PM MDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Tricky forecast this afternoon. Moisture has been increasing
through the day as seen on satellite and radar returns ahead of
a cold front to our west. Ahead of the front, winds have picked
up across the region with gusts of 25 to 35 mph being
common...upwards of 40 mph for the northern valleys. The front
is currently just to the west of Salt Lake City and is also
where the heaviest precip is located. As the front continues
moving slowly eastward, some light precip should begin over the
eastern Uintahs and also the Flat Tops/northern mountains.
Probably see some sprinkles now and then through the afternoon
before more pronounced showers kick in later this evening for
those areas. Elsewhere, cloudy skies, warm temps and breezy
conditions will be the rule for the remainder of the day.

This evening, the front will be just on our doorstep and will be
the focus of heavier precip. After midnight, this boundary will
be draped across the northern valleys up into the northern
mountains. Warm temperatures ahead of the boundary should allow
snow to melt on roadways/pavements but above 9K feet, snow looks
to accumulate. Models have been fairly consistent with this
boundary slowly pivoting southward as impulses move along this
feature causing some heavier rain and snowfall overnight. The
central mountains forecast snowfall amounts increased with the
latest model runs and though impacts to roadways won`t be `too`
great...enough snow will fall in the zone to warrant the
advisories. Do expect Vail Pass to be a bit of a mess for the
Friday commute. Get those freshies but be careful getting there.

Models continue to show some heavier precip for the southern
portions of the northern valleys but the thinking is that any
snow that accumulates will very quickly melt off once the sun
rises. Might need to be reevaluated as we see where the band
sets up. With all that in mind, winter weather advisories are
now in effect for the northern mountains and Flattops from 6PM
this evening through Saturday morning while the central
mountains start midnight tonight through Saturday morning. 6 to
10 inches of new snow looks solid above 9K feet. Important to
note that snow will likely melt on roads during the day Friday
while the higher elevations will see accumulating snow...thus
the 9K feet elevation based advisory. Some rumbles of thunder
are also possible along the front as it sets up across the
region. The San Juans may see an odd shower here or there in the
short term period but the most activity will lie on and around
the boundary. The eastern Uintas will also see some accumulating
snow but rates are tepid at best...1 inch every 6 hours so
opted to keep them out of any advisory. This looks to be the
start of an active period of weather with some lengthy breaks
thrown in for good measure.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 208 PM MDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Light orographic snow showers will continue Saturday across the
eastern Uintas, Elkheads, and Park Range...and perhaps down to the
Flat Tops. A few showers could be productive in the embedded
shortwaves nested in a strong southwest jet out ahead of the coming
storm situated off the NORCAL coast. Strong warm air advection, rich
AR moisture, and gusty winds are on the docket Saturday.
Precipitation will fill in southward in our mountain zones Saturday
afternoon and evening, while valleys will remain dry and last to
saturate. This changes by Sunday morning when widespread valley rain
and mountain snow pretty much canvasses the region. Early estimates
for the richest snowfall period Sunday through Monday morning point
at 6 to 10 inches of fresh snow across much of our high country. The
caveat here will be the warm afternoon temperatures Sunday chewing
into snow accumulations. Some of the high passes will still pose
travel challenges for motorists and snow enthusiasts squeezing in
the last bouts of winter recreation. I would expect a few higher
snow totals to creep in as we get high res guidance into the
forecast. For now, the duration of the snowfall and warm
temperatures are keeping this one on the highlight teeter totter.
Elevation based advisories don`t seem out of the question, given the
rich AR moisture. Frontal passage sometime Monday afternoon will
transition to an unstable, high lapse rate, post frontal regime and
transition snow away from some of the favored aspects in the
southwesterly flow regime in place. Remnant moisture will be slow to
scour out and keep some light showers on the terrain into Tuesday
afternoon, primarily down south in the San Juans. Morning lows will
trend some 5-10 degrees colder in the wake of the front Tuesday and
Wednesday morning. A gradual warmup returns Wednesday and Thursday
as high pressure noses in and turns winds back to the south

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1120 PM MDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Widespread showers across northern Utah and Colorado transition
to more scattered in nature across the central CWA late this
evening. MVFR to LIFR conditions will occur as a result of snow
and low clouds across the northern TAF sites well past sunrise
with a mixture of ILS to MVFR occur in the central and VFR stays
in place to the South. Improvement will be slow to arrive on
Friday but after 18Z ILS/VFR should become more common across
the central and North. Passing convective showers however could
quickly change conditions to LIFR through the afternoon.
Moderate winds aloft will keep a threat of LLWS and mountain
wave turbulence in place over the next 24 hours with some gusts
over 30 mph reaching the surface at times.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MDT Saturday for COZ004-013.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MDT Saturday for COZ009-010-
     012.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...GJT


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