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000
FNUS75 KGJT 221451
FWSGJT

Spot Forecast for Oxbow Rx...BLM
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
851 AM MDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 MDT on April 24.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure will be over the burn site but weak disturbances
will bring some showery precip along the CO/WY border...just north
of the burn. Strong upper level winds will also be over the burn
site and deeper mixing will bring these stronger winds to the
surface. Sustained winds of 15 to 18 mph are expected Wednesday
and again on Thursday with gusts to 25 to 30 mph each day, if not
a bit higher at times. Chances (20 to 40%) for showers and storms
increase Thursday and though areas north are move favored, as a
chance exists, kept them in the forecast.

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Max temperature.....72-77.
Min humidity........12-17 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 10 mph increasing to 18 mph in
                    the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good increasing to excellent in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low.
LAL.................1.
Mixing height.......6400 ft AGL increasing to 11900 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 16 mph.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Min temperature.....39-44.
Max humidity........53-58 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 12 to 15 mph becoming
                    downslope/downvalley 3 to 6 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent decreasing to poor (3000 knot-ft)
                    overnight.
Haines Index........6 or high.
LAL.................1.
Mixing height.......12100 ft AGL decreasing to 500 ft AGL
                    overnight.
Transport winds.....South 12 mph.

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent) then becoming partly
                    sunny (55-65 percent). Chance of rain showers
                    and slight chance of thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
CWR.................10 percent.
Max temperature.....67-72.
Min humidity........15-20 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 18 mph. Gusts up to 30 mph.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good increasing to excellent in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 3.
Mixing height.......12100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 20 mph.

$$
Forecaster...Tom Renwick
Requested by...Shane Pfeiffer
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2411731.0/GJT
.DELDT 04/22/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL spfeiffer@blm.gov