Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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363 FXUS63 KGLD 121120 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 520 AM MDT Sun May 12 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Marginal Risks of severe weather and excessive rainfall for parts of the area this afternoon and evening. - Another round of showers/thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday with a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall Wednesday/Wednesday night. - Much lower chances (20%-30%) for precipitation Friday and Saturday with afternoon temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 400 AM MDT Sun May 12 2024 Today-tonight...an upper level low pressure area over south central Colorado early this morning is forecast to move into western/southwestern Kansas by the end of the day then slowly into central Kansas overnight. Isolated to scattered showers early this morning east of Highway 27 should lift north and east by 18z with quite a mid level dry slot south of the KS/NE border limiting rainfall coverage. However, during the afternoon and early evening, coverage of showers and thunderstorms increases for much of the area (except Yuma and Kit Carson counties) on the backside of the upper low and where some peaks of sun may break through, allowing for some destabilization. We are currently in the Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms with marginally severe hail and wind gusts to 50 mph the primary hazards. Additionally, locations generally east of Highway 27 are in a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall, thanks in part to precipitable water values of 0.80 to 1.1 inches and slow storm motions. After midnight, shower and thunderstorm chances slowly move east with the threat for severe weather and excessive rainfall coming to an end. High temperatures are currently forecast to be in the upper 50s to lower 70s. Locations under lengthier periods of clouds and precipitation will struggle to get out of the 50s. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the lower 40s to lower 50s. On average, rainfall amounts ranging from one third to one inch are anticipated. Monday-Monday night...currently, there is a 20%-40% chance of showers and thunderstorms east of Highway 25 due to wraparound rainfall behind the slowly exiting storm. Dry weather returns across the area tonight. High temperatures warm back into the lower to upper 70s with low temperatures in the 40s. There will be breezy northerly winds during the day, gusting in the 20 to 30 mph range. Tuesday-Tuesday night...Much warmer temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s are forecast ahead of an approaching upper level trough from the northwest. This trough will bring 20%-40% chances for showers and thunderstorms to the area during the afternoon and 40%- 70% chances during the night. Presently, severe weather is not anticipated. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the middle 40s to lower 50s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 130 AM MDT Sun May 12 2024 For Wednesday and Thursday, the upper pattern continues to be forecast to be similar to this weekend where a cut-off low over the Southwestern CONUS moves east and rejoins the main flow. The apparent difference is that this one looks to be a little more south which will lower the effect it has over the area. Still forecasting temperatures to be in the 60`s and 70`s with some shower/storm chances. Severe weather looks to be unlikely at this time. Friday and into the weekend remains fairly uncertain as guidance is split between moving in another upper trough and keeping some of the cut-off low near the area, or moving everything east and allowing ridging to develop while the next trough begins to move into the Northwest CONUS. Currently leaning towards the ridging solution with warmer temperatures in the 80`s and lower chances for precipitation simply because I haven`t seen too many trailing upper lows (though we`ve had some recently). If the trailing low and/or another trough moves through solutions are correct, than temperatures would be more likely to remain in the 60`s and 70`s with more chances for precipitation. Given the overall split/weak flow, large scale air mass changes look to be unlikely which will keep moisture available over the area. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 520 AM MDT Sun May 12 2024 KGLD...sub VFR cigs are expected from taf issuance through 17z with winds from the south up to 10kts. After 18z, VFR conditions are expected. Showers/thunderstorms will be possible from 20z-03z with higher confidence in them impacting the terminal in the 21z-00z timeframe with reduced visibilities and possibly wind gusts in the 20-30kt range. After 04z, dry conditions are anticipated. Light and variable winds at 18z become light from the northeast around 20z, increasing from the north with guts around 20kts from 22z-00z. After 01z, winds from the north to northwest at speeds under 11kts. KMCK...VFR conditions are expected from taf issuance through 08z. Sub VFR cigs in stratus are anticipated after 09z. Winds at taf issuance light and variable, becoming southeasterly at speeds under 10kts from 17z-19z. After 20z, east winds up to 10kts back to the northeast then north at speeds up to 10kts. Light rain showers will be possible from taf issuance through 16z with showers/thunderstorms anticipated at/near the terminal from 17z-06z. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM...KAK AVIATION...99