Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
617 PM MST Thu Feb 15 2024 /717 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2024/

This outlook applies to the Goodland Hydrologic Service Area (HSA)
which refers to major rivers located...

- In Yuma, Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties in Colorado
- In Dundy, Hitchcock and Red Willow counties in Nebraska
- In 13 northwest Kansas counties whose southeast boundaries are
delineated by Greeley, Wichita, Logan, Gove, Graham and Norton
counties.

These river systems include:

-The Republican River
-The North and South Forks of the Republican River
-The North and South Forks of the Solomon River
-The Saline and Smoky Hill Rivers
-Beaver, Sappa and Prairie Dog Creeks

This outlook is valid from February 15 though February 29.

Outlooks are routinely issued in February and March to give an
advanced notice of possible flooding. They are based on soil
moisture, snowpack, magnitude and streamflow at the time the outlook
is issued. Outlooks are also based on normal future temperature and
precipitation. Thus, if future conditions are not normal, then
actual crests will differ from this outlook. The vast majority of
flood events in the Goodland Service Area result from short periods
of higher intensity precipitation, or longer periods of excessive
precipitation.

For calendar year so far, the region has seen 0.1 inches up to 2
inches of precipitation. Most of this has fallen as snow that has
largely melted by now. Locations southeast of a line from Oberlin,
KS to Wallace, KS have seen the highest amounts of precipitation so
far.

Small and isolated snow banks can still be found in the southeastern
HSA and will easily infiltrate into the ground when melted. Current
soil temperatures are ranging from the mid 30s to lower 40s,
according to the latest two and four inch soil temperatures,
courtesy of the Kansas State mesonet.

Near-surface soil moisture conditions are currently near to above
normal over much of the area, due to recent precipitation. Above
normal temperatures and sunshine for the upcoming week are expected
to dry the soil.

The current Drought Monitor Index (www.droughtmonitor.unl.edu) shows
a small amount of extreme drought over the far eastern HSA becoming
less severe to the west. From Kansas highway 25 and west, about half
of the area is abnormally dry with the other half not in a drought
classification. The 3-month outlook (valid for February 1 - April
30), has drought conditions improving, with the potential for
drought removal across the Goodland Service Area.

NOAA`s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) (www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov),
shows the latest 8-14 day outlook forecasting above normal
temperatures and near normal precipitation for the February 22-28
period. The latest 3-month outlook for February through April,
forecasts near normal temperatures and above normal precipitation.

Reservoir level conservation pool capacities currently range at
Enders Dam, 19 percent. For the Medicine Creek Dam, 89 percent. For
the Norton Dam in northwest Kansas, 52 percent. For the Red Willow
Dam, 47 percent and for the Trenton Dam, 55 percent. All of these
are increasing from over the past two weeks.

Over the next two weeks, flooding does not look likely due to the
lack of organized precipitation events and mostly melted snow pack.
Above normal temperatures will work to dry out the soil over the
outlook period.



                       SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK
                      NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
                 MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
                         PLEASANT HILL, MO
                            FEB 14, 2024


NARRATIVE PART 1 OF 1

ATTN WFO`S SERVED BY MBRFC.

This Spring Flood Outlook is not for public release until Thursday,
15 February 2024.

This Spring Outlook is for the Missouri River drainage which includes
rivers in Montana, Wyoming, Colorado, North and South Dakota,
Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa, Minnesota, and Missouri.


   SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK


Flood risk this Spring within the Missouri River basin varies from
near-normal to below-normal.  No areas have an above-normal risk for
flooding this Spring.

To provide context, a normal risk indicates that a location that
typically experiences Spring time flooding is likely to see
flooding again this year.  However, a normal risk for flooding does
not necessarily mean that a location is expected to flood. For those
locations which do not typically experience flooding, a normal risk
simply indicates that flooding is again not expected this year.  By
the same token, a reduced risk of flooding does not necessarily
mean that flooding is not expected.  On the other hand, an
increased risk does not necessarily indicate flooding is likely.

Much of the Missouri River basin has now come out of a prolonged
three-to-four year long drought.  The latest Drought Monitor, issued
08 February 2024 categorizes 20 percent of the Missouri River basin
as being in drought.  This compares with 63 percent one year ago.

Mountain snowpack is below, to well below average. The headwaters of
the Platte River have a better snowpack than the northern Rockies,
but even here the snowpack is below normal.  Flooding in the
mountainous areas due to snowmelt is not likely this year.

Water supply forecasts issued in early February by the National
Weather Service project lower than average April-September runoff
volumes for the mountainous west for all but the Bighorn basin.
More information regarding current Water Supply Forecasts can be
accessed at weather.gov/mbrfc/water

There is widespread, but very shallow plains snow stretching across
eastern Montana, northeastern Wyoming, and across portions of the
Dakotas. There is also a swath of shallow snow running from the
Denver area up into the Nebraska Panhandle. At this time, plains
snowpack will figure little in enhancing flood risk, at least as
far as fueling runoff. However, in the absence of an insulating
snowpack, soils have been allowed to develop a fairly deep frost
depth in some areas. Frozen ground is expected to play a factor in
enhancing runoff in areas of North Dakota and Montana.

River ice action has posed some problems already this winter. One
notable case being the ice jams along the lower Missouri River
that formed as a result of the mid-January arctic blast that
affected the entire region.  Ice jams were reported from just
upstream of Sioux City, Iowa downstream through the Kansas City,
Missouri reach.  The Missouri River at Omaha set a new low stage
record on 16 January.  No flooding occurred due to this event, but
water intake users were concerned over the resulting low stages.
Other ice jams this season have been reported along the Platte,
Loup, Elkhorn, Niobrara, and North Platte Rivers in Nebraska; the
Yellowstone, Beaverhead, and Gallatin Rivers in Montana; and the
White River in South Dakota. So far, any flooding associated with
these jams has been minor. With the recent warmer-than-normal
temperatures, river ice along many of the rivers in the northern
plains is either rotting in place, or has moved out altogether.
Although the risk for future ice jam freeze-up or break-up flooding
is now considered low, wherever river ice remains, so does the risk
for ice jam flooding.  Please note, the probabilistic
quantifications that form the basis for this Spring Flood Outlook
do not take into account the presence of river ice.

Springtime flooding in the lower one-third of the basin, including
southern Iowa, eastern Kansas, and the state of Missouri, is driven
by typical thunderstorm activity.  Flooding is projected to occur
again this Spring in this region of the basin. We have already
experienced flooding in this area as recently as late January,
where minor-to-moderate flooding occurred along four tributaries
located in eastern Kansas and central Missouri due to a
rain-on-snow event.

The following state by state flood potential discussions are based
on long-range probabilistic river outlooks developed this week.
Again, it must be stressed, these outlooks do not take into account
the presence of river ice.

In Kansas, Stranger Creek is expected to have moderate level
flooding, while the Little Osage and Marias des Cygnes Rivers are
projected to have minor flooding.

In the state of Missouri, the Crooked, Blackwater, and Lamine
Rivers are outlooked to experience moderate flooding, as do
Wakenda, Petite Saline, and Big Creeks.  The Tarkio, Platte,
Moreau, Big Piney, Little Osage, Marmaton, Sac, and South
Grand Rivers are projected to see minor flooding, as does
Moniteau Creek.  The Missouri River downstream of Kansas City
to the mouth could also see minor flooding.

In Nebraska, the North Platte River at North Platte is likely
to have minor flooding.

In Iowa, the Little Sioux River is expected to have minor flooding.

These projections of river stages are based on current observed
states of streamflow, soil moisture, and snowpack, coupled with
future precipitation and temperature patterns and anticipated
operational hydrologic changes such as reservoir releases and canal
diversions.  "Outlooks" are provided for long-range (weeks to months)
projections based on climatological patterns of precipitation and
temperature.  "Forecasts" are provided for short-term (days)
projections based on forecast patterns of precipitation and
temperature.  The uncertainty of these products varies from
season to season and location to location.  The uncertainty of
forecasts tend be less than the uncertainty of outlooks due to
their shorter lead time.

Users of these products are encouraged to contact their nearest
National Weather Service Forecast Office for continued updates of
meteorological conditions which can have significant impacts on
flood preparedness planning and flood fighting activities.

For additional quantitative information please refer to AHPS products
for probabilistic outlooks of potential flooding.  Refer to short-term
flood forecasts and products, if any are currently issued, for
information about ongoing or near-term anticipated flooding.

The next Spring Outlook is scheduled for release on February 29th.

Additional river information, including the monthly Water Supply
Outlook, can be accessed at the following URL:
http://weather.gov/mbrfc


   Current Snow Conditions

The conditions listed below are based on observations and model
data as of Wednesday morning, February 14th.

Montana Plains

Snow depths of 1-4 inches are being reported across the plains
of the Milk basin in northern Montana with water equivalents
less than 0.5 inches.  Elsewhere across eastern Montana,
snow depths are generally less than 2 inches with water
equivalents less than 0.75 inches.

Wyoming and Colorado Plains

Snow depths of generally less than 3 inches are being reported
across the plains of Wyoming and Colorado with water equivalents
less than 0.5 inches.

Mountainous West

Snowpack conditions in the mountainous areas of the basin are
generally below normal.  In Montana, the Jefferson,
Musselshell, Missouri headwaters, Sun, Teton, and Marais River
basins are reporting a below normal snowpack (50-75%).
The St. Mary and Milk basins are reporting a below normal
snowpack (60-70%).  In Wyoming, the Tongue, Bighorn, Powder,
Wind, and Yellowstone River basins are reporting a below normal
snowpack (60-80%).  The higher elevations of the North
Platte River basin are reporting a below normal snowpack (75-85%).
In Colorado, the higher elevations of the South Platte River
basin are reporting a near normal snowpack (90-100%).

North Dakota

Snow depths of less than 4 inches are being reported across the
western half of North Dakota with water equivalents less than
0.5 inches.  Little or no snow is being reported across the
eastern half of North Dakota.

South Dakota

The Black Hills in South Dakota have 10-15 inches of snow depth
with water equivalents in the 1-3 inch range.  Little or no
snow is being reported across the remainder of South Dakota.

Iowa

No snow is being reported across western Iowa.

Nebraska

Snow depths of less than 3 inches are being reported across the
Nebraska panhandle with water equivalents less than 0.3 inches.
No snow is being reported across the remainder of the state.

Missouri and Kansas

No snow is being reported across Missouri and Kansas.


   Current Soil Moisture Conditions

The US Drought Monitor indicates that portions of the Missouri
River basin are experiencing below normal soil moisture
conditions.  Moderate to severe drought is indicated across
central Kansas, southeastern Nebraska, and western Iowa. Abnormally
dry to moderate drought is indicated across much of Montana, Wyoming,
northern North Dakota, eastern South Dakota, and central Missouri.

Isolated frost depth reports suggest that soils across Montana,
Wyoming, South Dakota, and North Dakota have frost penetration
ranging from 0.5-3 feet. Frost depths of less than 0.5 feet
are being reported across Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa,
and Missouri.


    Current River Conditions

A large majority of rivers across the northern half of the
Missouri River basin are iced over.  Generally, river levels
across the basin are currently running near to below normal, or
estimated to be so if the rivers are frozen. The exception is
over southeastern Kansas and northern Nebraska, where rivers are
running above normal due to recent snowmelt and rain.

A summary of river flow conditions at selected river stations for
February 14th follows:


                                    Long Term     Current
                                    Mean (CFS)      (CFS)
James River       - Huron, SD           83           796
Big Sioux River   - Akron, IA          538          1015 (EST)
Platte River      - Louisville, NE    6550         10800
Kansas River      - Desoto, KS        2560          1730
Gasconade River   - Jerome, MO        1690          1120
Missouri River    - Omaha, NE        19500         18800
Missouri River    - Rulo, NE         25500         29400
Missouri River    - St. Joseph, MO   27900         33900
Missouri River    - Waverly, MO      33000         39400
Missouri River    - Hermann, MO      53500         52700




END MBRFC

$$


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