270
FNUS73 KGRR 100827
FWSGRR

Spot Forecast for KNC Rx...Fort Custer National Gaurd
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
427 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1300 EDT on May 10.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (616) 949-5150, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
Expecting some patchy cumulus cloud development during the middle
of the day with a deep mixing layer. Light breeze should be mainly
from the northwest trending west.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
Temperature.........60 at ignition...Max 64.
RH..................47 percent at ignition...Min 41 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds northwest at 8 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Northwest winds 9 to 10
                    mph.
Mixing height.......6500 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 6600 ft
                    AGL.
Mixing winds........Northwest 10 to 13 mph shifting to the west
                    around 10 mph in the evening.
Smoke dispersal.....670 /excellent/ at ignition. Max...760
                    /excellent/.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 5.

TIME (EDT)      1 PM   3 PM   5 PM   7 PM   9 PM   11 PM
Sky (%).........35     47     23     23     37     54
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............60     62     62     61     56     53
RH..............47     44     43     44     57     61
20 ft wind......NW 8   NW 10  W 10   W 9    SW 6   S 6
20 ft wind gust.14     15     16     13     8      9
Mix hgt (ft)....6500   6100   5400   2800   500    400
Mixing wind.....NW 10  NW 12  W 13   W 10   SW 8   S 10
Haines index....4      5      5      5      3      3
Smoke disprsl...670    700    680    290    40     50

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers in the evening, then rain showers and
                    slight chance of thunderstorms overnight.
Temperature.........Min 47.
RH..................Max 89 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 7 mph increasing to 6 to
                    13 mph late at night, then shifting to the west
                    around 12 mph toward daybreak. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
                    overnight.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Southwest 8 to 9 mph shifting to the west 14 to
                    16 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....140 (fair) early in the evening decreasing to
                    40 (poor) late in the night.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent) then becoming
                    sunny (20-30 percent). Slight chance of rain
                    showers.
Temperature.........Max 59.
RH..................Min 55 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 13 to 21 mph. Gusts up to 32
                    mph.
Mixing height.......4500 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Northwest 18 to 26 mph increasing to 23 to 30
                    mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....240 (fair) early in the morning increasing to
                    1330 (excellent) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Scholten
Requested by...Lee Osterland
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413619.0/GRR
.DELDT 05/10/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL osterlandlee@gmail.com